American Promise promises a payout of $1300 for every $100 bet to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.  Expect these odds in the single digits with rain in the forecast as American Promise is among the top mudders in the field.

American Promise is a 3 year old colt and has raced from 2024 to 2025. He was sired by Justify out of the Tapit mare Tapella.

Key Factors That Could Lead to American Promise Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby

Mudder (10) 

On December 29, 2024, he won a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Oaklawn Park, which was run on a muddy sealed track. He led throughout and secured victory by 1½ lengths, defeating Publisher and Knicks Glory.  A previous race on a muddy track did not produce as good results.  Saturday's track will be wet.

Trainer (7) 

After Bob Baffert, 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas has the most Kentucky Derby wins of all those trainers taking part in the big 2025 race.

His victories came with the following horses:​

•     Winning Colors in 1988
•     Thunder Gulch in 1995
•     Grindstone in 1996
•     Charismatic in 1999

He's also won seven Preakness Stakes wins and four Belmont Stakes victories.

The Kentucky Derby wins were more than 25 years ago.

Past Performance (5)

He's the winner of the Virginia Derby, which just happens to have been his most recent start.   He won this one by 7 ¾ lengths.

More Reason to Bet on American Promise

“What I’m trying to do is get him focused on getting into his races quicker because with a 20-horse (Kentucky Derby) field, there’s always a problem,” Lukas said of American Promise. “Put yourself in a place where you can (avoid trouble). I’m training him a little bit different. He did a half-mile from the gate in :45 seconds. He doesn’t have to do that, but at least he’s got that in mind now. The other horse worked with him just to give him a little interest.”

Why Final American Promise Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby

Past Performance (3)

Yes he won the Virginia Derby, but his two prior starts resulted in a 5th place finish at the Risen Star and 7th place at the Southwest Stakes.

He's also 0-1-0 record in three starts at Churchill Downs.

Another Big Concern (2)

The seven-week layoff between the Virginia Derby and the Kentucky Derby is very concerning.

Updated 2025 Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

•     Gate 1: Citizen Bull (17-1)
•     Gate 2: Neoequos (57-1)
•     Gate 3: Final Gambit (17-1)
•     Gate 4: American Promise (13-1)
•     Gate 5: Admire Daytona (39-1)
•     Gate 6: Luxor Cafe (15-1)
•     Gate 7: Journalism (7-2)
•     Gate 8: Burnham Square (19-1)
•     Gate 9: Grande (19-1)
•     Gate 10: Flying Mohawk (36-1)
•     Gate 11: East Avenue (33-1)
•     Gate 12: Publisher (30-1)
•     Gate 13: Tiztastic (20-1)
•     Gate 14: Render Judgment (13-1)
•     Gate 15: Coal Battle (30-1)
•     Gate 16: Sandman (5-1)
•     Gate 17: Sovereignty (11-1)
•     Gate 18: Chunk of Gold (33-1)
•     Gate 19: Owen Almighty (44-1)
•     Gate 20: Baeza (50-1)

Early Odds to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby

*Listed in order of post position