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This is your late Friday night weather report for Saturday's Kentucky Derby and the weather is great if the horse you're betting is likely to run best in slop. There are only a few of those.
With a 70 percent chance of rain, the Derby weather had changed all handicapping and may even threaten to delay the race a bit.
There is even some talk that horses with little or no experience running in mud may be scratched from Saturday's Derby as a precaution.
Arkansas Derby winner Line of David might end up being a casualty.
Trainer John Sadler has stated he is considering scratching Line of David if the weather forecast gets too ominous.
"Yes, I might consider not running him if it were to get really bad here," he said. "But it would have to be something extraordinary. My owners want to run and I want to run. And I know this track (condition) can change drastically from morning to afternoon, so anything I might do in that regard would have to be right up to the race. We'd wait until the last minute."
Gambling911.com has been reporting on Kentucky Derby horses that should be able to run well on a muddy track. These include Backtalk, Paddy O'Prado (Gambling911.com's Derby pick to win), Discreetly Mine, Mission Impazible and Devil May Care.
14 of the 20 Kentucky Derby contenders have yet to race on a muddy track.
"We do expect a period of showers and thunderstorms to develop in the Louisville area about 10 a.m. (Saturday) and that will last for three or four hours. We will get an inch of rain from that," said Joe Ammerman of the National Weather Service. "From the 1 to 2 p.m. time (Saturday) until after the end of the Derby, we're looking at either scattered showers or some light rain and an isolated thunderstorm. As far as severe weather, we're not looking at any potential for severe weather."
Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
