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This Kentucky Derby 2010 betting preview is brought to you by our friends at SBG Global, now celebrating over 10 years online. (see the SBG Global website here for top cash bonuses upon joining)
The 136th running of the Kentucky Derby odds is on Saturday with 20 horses looking to win the first jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown. Lookin at Lucky is the 3.5-1 (+350) morning line favorite but favorites in the Derby have not done well over the years with only five having won since 1979. It should be noted though that four of those five came in the last 10 years. The goal for most people that play the Derby is to find the longshot that can beat the favorite. Last year it was Mine that Bird winning at 50-1 but not many people picked him to win. This year the race has the potential for another longshot to win especially with rain in the forecast for Saturday.
The favorite at SBG Global is Lookin at Lucky at 3-1 but the horse starts from the rail and winning from the rail is difficult in a 20-horse field. The second choice in Kentucky Derby odds is Sidney's Candy at 5-1. That horse has the outside post #20 so unless he is a great horse he is not likely to have much left after using energy to get good positioning.
Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy may be factors in the race but with their post positions they are vulnerable favorites. What that means is that you should be looking for a horse that can handle the muddy track and win at a nice price. Horses that might fit that bill are Super Saver (15-1), Devil May Care (10-1), Mission Impazible (20-1) and Awesome Act (10-1). Super Saver has a win and a second in the mud so you know he can handle the slop.
There are a number of speed horses in the race and in the slop there is always the chance a horse will just go wire to wire. Line of David should get the early lead and although he shouldn't be able to go this far, you never know in the mud.
The wettest Kentucky Derby in history was in 1918, when 2.31 inches fell on the track. Some forecasters are predicting that type of rain for Saturday. Trainer Todd Pletcher who had to scratch Eskendereya said that his four horses can handle the off-track. "All of our horses handled a wet track in their breezes (last) Saturday," said Pletcher, who has Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine and Mission Impazible. "If there's a likelihood of slop or something similar, it may be an advantage for us. We know we can get over it and I'm not sure others can say that."
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