With rain in the forecast all day Saturday for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, it's important to look for horses with a proven track record of running in the muck.

At 30-1 odds, American Promise is more than able to run on a muddy track.

On December 29, 2024, he won a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Oaklawn Park, which was run on a muddy sealed track. He led throughout and secured victory by 1½ lengths, defeating Publisher and Knicks Glory.  

A previous race on a wet track might steal away some of this horse's mojo as he didn't perform quite as well.

Then there is the trainer. 

After Bob Baffert, 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas has the most Kentucky Derby wins of all those trainers taking part in the big 2025 race.

His victories came with the following horses:​

•     Winning Colors in 1988
•     Thunder Gulch in 1995
•     Grindstone in 1996
•     Charismatic in 1999

He's also won seven Preakness Stakes wins and four Belmont Stakes victories.

The Kentucky Derby wins were more than 25 years ago.

His past performance is nothing to really write home about.  A Virginia Derby victory, and that's about it.  It was still impressive: 7 ¾ lengths.

“What I’m trying to do is get him focused on getting into his races quicker because with a 20-horse (Kentucky Derby) field, there’s always a problem,” Lukas said of American Promise. “Put yourself in a place where you can (avoid trouble). I’m training him a little bit different. He did a half-mile from the gate in :45 seconds. He doesn’t have to do that, but at least he’s got that in mind now. The other horse worked with him just to give him a little interest.”

Odds to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby

•     Gate 1: Citizen Bull (17-1)
•     Gate 2: Neoequos (57-1)
•     Gate 3: Final Gambit (17-1)
•     Gate 4: American Promise (13-1)
•     Gate 5: Admire Daytona (39-1)
•     Gate 6: Luxor Cafe (15-1)
•     Gate 7: Journalism (7-2)
•     Gate 8: Burnham Square (19-1)
•     Gate 9: Grande (19-1)
•     Gate 10: Flying Mohawk (36-1)
•     Gate 11: East Avenue (33-1)
•     Gate 12: Publisher (30-1)
•     Gate 13: Tiztastic (20-1)
•     Gate 14: Render Judgment (13-1)
•     Gate 15: Coal Battle (30-1)
•     Gate 16: Sandman (5-1)
•     Gate 17: Sovereignty (11-1)
•     Gate 18: Chunk of Gold (33-1)
•     Gate 19: Owen Almighty (44-1)
•     Gate 20: Baeza (50-1)