Odds for Sandman have him paying out $600 for every $100 bet should he win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Sandman is a 3 year old colt and has raced from 2024 to 2025. He was sired by Tapit out of the Distorted Humor mare Distorted Music.

Key Factors That Could Lead to Sandman Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby

Mudder (9)

In the 2025 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, he finished second over a sealed, wet-fast surface. In the 2025 Rebel Stakes (G2), also at Oaklawn Park, Sandman secured third place on a similarly wet track.  Rain is in the forecast all day Saturday.

Past Performance (7)

Sandman's most recent start resulted in a win at the Arkansas Derby.

Three horses have won the Arkansas Derby then went on to win the Kentucky Derby: Sunny's Halo, Smarty Jones, and American Pharoah.

He finished 3rd in his prior race, the Risen Stakes, and 2nd at the Southwest Stakes.

Trainer (5)

As of April 2025, Mark Casse has not won the Kentucky Derby. Despite his success in other major races, including victories in the 2019 Preakness Stakes with War of Will and the 2019 Belmont Stakes with Sir Winston , the Kentucky Derby remains a title he has yet to secure.

It has been four years since Casse has started a horse in the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey (6) 

José Ortiz won the 2017 Belmont Stakes and the 2022 Preakness Stakes, though he's never been victorious at the Kentucky Derby.

More Reason to Bet on Sandman (7)

With Rodriguez scratched, Sandman moves off the dreaded No. 17 post, which has never yielded a Kentucky Derby winner.

Four horses have won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 16 post position:​

    Animal Kingdom (2011)

    Monarchos (2001)

    Charismatic (1999)

    Thunder Gulch (1995) ​

From DRF:

In Sandman, the Arkansas Derby winner, Casse has a horse that certainly fits the profile of a top contender for Derby 151 on May 3 at Churchill Downs. He has a classic pedigree – a son of Tapit with a bottom side of the pedigree that includes Music Note, an 11-length winner of the then 1 1/4-mile Coaching Club American Oaks. Sandman has made eight starts, equaling the second most in the expected field. He is a Grade 1 winner, having recently captured the Arkansas Derby, and he possesses a strong closing kick.

“I think our horse is continuing to get better,” said Casse, who is winless with 10 starters in eight Kentucky Derbies. “Each race has made him better. He goes into the Derby as one of the most experienced horses in the race, which is always important when you have 20 horses.

“There aren’t many horses that are going to cherish the mile and a quarter any more than him,” Casse added. “I’m very happy with it.”

Why Sandman Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby

Jockey (4)

As of April 2025, jockey José Ortiz has not won the Kentucky Derby. He has participated in the race multiple times, including a fifth-place finish aboard Samraat in 2014

2025 Kentucky Derby Updated Post Positions and Odds

•     Gate 1: Citizen Bull (17-1)
•     Gate 2: Neoequos (57-1)
•     Gate 3: Final Gambit (17-1)
•     Gate 4: American Promise (13-1)
•     Gate 5: Admire Daytona (39-1)
•     Gate 6: Luxor Cafe (15-1)
•     Gate 7: Journalism (7-2)
•     Gate 8: Burnham Square (19-1)
•     Gate 9: Grande (19-1)
•     Gate 10: Flying Mohawk (36-1)
•     Gate 11: East Avenue (33-1)
•     Gate 12: Publisher (30-1)
•     Gate 13: Tiztastic (20-1)
•     Gate 14: Render Judgment (13-1)
•     Gate 15: Coal Battle (30-1)
•     Gate 16: Sandman (5-1)
•     Gate 17: Sovereignty (11-1)
•     Gate 18: Chunk of Gold (33-1)
•     Gate 19: Owen Almighty (44-1)
•     Gate 20: Baeza (50-1)

Early Odds to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby

*Listed in order of post position