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What is the Payout Michigan to Beat Maryland on the Moneyline?

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Sep/18/2022

  • The moneyline was likely to be in the neighborhood of -550 for the Wolverines in their Week 4 game versus Maryland

  • The Terps open as a +17 dog versus Michigan with an early 1.5 overlay detected

  • This game will be Maryland's toughest test yet with both teams 3-0 coming into Week 4

  • Michigan has yet to be tested either so far this season

The new Sagarin Power Ratings were released for Week 4 2022 College Football.  With the Maryland-Michigan game we get a number of 15.46, which will make for too pricey a moneyline bet on Michigan.

Unless you think Maryland is going to stun the Wolverines, there is little value in betting the moneyline on this game.

There is around a 1.5 early overlay on this game early as Maryland opened +17.  Seven of the nine monitored key early afternoon/evening games of Week 3 featured overlays.  Five of those were clean favorites, two dogs with volatile lines. 

This will be a hot matchup as both teams come into Week 4 undefeated. 

The Terrapins are yet to face a team like Michigan, though they were only a -2.5 favorite against SMU at home and got the job done with a 34-27 victory.  They had to overcome 15 penalties in that one.

Taulia Tagovailoa threw a 5-yard touchdown pass to Corey Dyches with 7:30 remaining, and Maryland held on for a 34-27 victory over SMU on Saturday night. Roman Hemby ran for 151 yards and a touchdown for the Terrapins, who overcame 15 penalties.

“We did not play our best football today. Let’s make no mistake about it. A lot of errors, a lot of penalties, a lot of turnovers,” Maryland coach Michael Locksley said. “But it was against a really, really good team. ... To find a way to win, we needed a game like that.”

Michigan hasn't exactly been tested yet over these last three weeks.  They played three of the worst teams in College Football: Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn.  At least Maryland faced a decent team last week.

They are still ranked 5th best in the nation.

From ESPN:

The Wolverines scored 50 or more points in each of their first three games for the first time in program history after a lopsided 59-0 win against UConn. Running back Blake Corum had five of Michigan's touchdowns and tied the school's single-game record for rushing touchdowns. Corum did it on only 12 carries for 71 yards. Meanwhile, new starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy had 214 pass yards on 15-of-18 passing, most of which came in the first half, as the Michigan backups were put in for most of the second half. It was a decisive and balanced win to put the Wolverines at 3-0 on the season. -- Tom VanHaaren

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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