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Lately a handful of US states have taken a position against prediction markets, however, nearly all of these are acting to protect their own gambling markets.
Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour has argued publicly about the legality of prediction markets and operating nationwide across the United States, claiming the sector does not offer traditional gambling but instead provides trading on event contracts that specifically fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
This week, the administration of US President Donald Trump agreed.
Michael Selig, the recently appointed chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, wrote in an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal, “The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products.”
From the Associated Press:
Polymarket and Kalshi and other prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts tied to the probable outcome of an event. Customers can wager on everything from whether it will rain in Los Angeles tomorrow to who will in the NBA championship to whether the U.S. and Iran will go to war. The contracts are typically priced between one cent and 99 cents, which roughly translates into what percentage of those customers believe that event will happen.
While customers can bet on anything, roughly 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume goes toward wagers on sports, while roughly half of Polymarket’s trading is tied to sports. Kalshi said it saw more than $1 billion in volume trade on the Superbowl.
So what about states that do not yet offer regulated gambling or sports betting?
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox answered that question on Wednesday.
His state does not even have a lottery, though residence of the state have long been able to access gambling sites located outside the US as well as local bookies and daily fantasy sports sites. It should be noted that none of these sites - prediction markets included - are regulated by the state.
During an interview at POLITICO’s 2026 Governors Summit, the Republican governor pushed back on the Trump Administration's position related to prediction markets, saying the federal government “coming in and trying to tell us” to back off state-level fixes is “preposterous.”
Cox' current term runs through 2029 and it likely won't matter who serves as Utah's governor thereafter. There is little wiggle room in the state for acceptance of any forms of gambling.
“Look, this is a joke, and I can’t believe he tried to say this with a straight face,” Cox said, referring to CFTC Chair Mike Selig’s announcement earlier this week that the agency has singular authority to regulate prediction markets.
“I’m concerned about these new technologies, and what they’re doing to our kids,” Cox added. “It’s one thing if we’re fighting China, and you’re developing your model. But once you start selling sexualized chat bots to kids in my state, now I have a problem with that, and I’m going to get involved there, and the Supreme Court is going to back me up.”
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
