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Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term is set to end May 15
His Board of Governors term runs through January 31, 2028
Because of a probe into a construction project at the Federal Reserve headquarters, Senate consideration of Kevin Warsh has been delayed
There is a betting market for that...sort of.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell should he choose to stay in his role next month.
Powell's term as head of the Chair of the Federal Reserve ends May 15 while his Board of Governors term runs until January 31, 2028.
Polymarket currently offers odds on Powell ceasing to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by December 31 of this year with 67% saying he will be out, though this doesn't necessarily mean by force.
Why This Matters
Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit this week to a construction site at Federal Reserve headquarters that is the focus of an investigation into a $2.5 billion renovation project, according to two people familiar with the visit.
Two prosecutors and an investigator from U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office were turned away on Tuesday by a building contractor and referred to Fed attorneys, one of the people said. The two people familiar with the visit spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to publicly discuss an ongoing investigation.
Last month, during a closed-door hearing before a federal judge, a top deputy from Pirro’s office conceded that they hadn’t found any evidence of a crime in their investigation of the headquarters project.
The investigation has faced bipartisan opposition in Congress. It also has delayed Senate consideration of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to replace Fed chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends May 15.
Prediction Market Resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
