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It is easy to look at the Cleveland-Carolina Baker Mayfield trade and anoint the Panthers as winners. Carolina went from Sam Darnold, a quarterback with more interceptions than touchdowns in each of his last two, to a former number one overall choice who’s just 18 months removed from guiding the Browns their first playoff win in two decades.
It’s never a bad thing to have extra quarterbacks on the roster, and it’s doubly good when the majority of your quarterback money being spent is actually being paid by another team. However, just how much does Mayfield move the needle for Carolina? Sure, the quarterback room is deeper, but is the team better?
Panthers’ 2022 Odds
According to the bookmakers in Las Vegas and those wagering on NFL futures, the Panthers may be better-or not-in 2022 because of acquiring Mayfield.
Carolina isn’t a favorite to win the title now, and won’t be. They are priced at 125-1, or +12500, to win Super Bowl LVII, according to Super Bowl odds. Prior to the trade, the Panthers were also paying +12500.
Only the Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions. Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets are longer shots, priced anywhere from 150-1 to 250-1 (+15000 to +25000).
Carolina is a 66-1 proposition (+6600) to win the NFC, as per NFL odds.
So, “negligible” is the word to describe Baker Mayfield’s new mailing address…at least now.
Mayfield’s Odds to Start
Just a season ago, the Panthers invested in Darnold, convincing themselves and the fans he could still develop into a winning NFL starter at quarterback. The team seems to have moved on from that, even if they aren’t willing to admit it publicly. There will be a quarterback competition in training camp and in the preseason, according to coach Matt Ruhle. As of right now, there is no favorite.
Las Vegas is weighing in with its opinion on what Rhule is saying, and they aren’t buying.
If you want to bet on Mayfield to open the season as the Panthers’ starter at quarterback, you’re laying -1200 on your wager. Darnold is paying +500, while rookie Matt Corral is priced at 50-1, or +5000.
Mayfield and Darnold were only selected two spots away from each other in the 2018 draft, but are worlds apart in the likelihood of being the starter in Carolina. This is Mayfield’s job, unless he does something unexpected to lose it.
Assuming Mayfield wins the job, he will start Week 1 against his old team, the Cleveland Browns.
Browns’ 2022 Odds
While almost everyone agreed that Mayfield was never going to play for the Browns this season, futures odds have not changed.
With Mayfield on the roster as a backup, the Browns were paying +2500 to win the Super Bowl. Now, that same bet is paying the same +2500.
The uncertainty is surrounding newly-acquired Deshaun Watson, awaiting a possible long suspension by the NFL. Instead of having Mayfield as a potential starter for an absent Watson, Cleveland would turn to Jacoby Brisset, 14-23 as an NFL starter. He’s never led a team to the playoffs in his six seasons in the NFL, and two as a starter.
The Browns are at +1200 to win the AFC.
