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Maryland vs. Michigan, Mizzou vs. Auburn, TCU vs. SMU Betting Previews Week 4

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:
Sep/22/2022

  • The Wolverines have covered the spread in the last six meetings against Maryland dating back to 2016

  • The Missouri-Auburn game has an underlay of 1.5 and the -7 favorite Auburn faces the highly unlikely prospect of going 0-4 Against The Spread after Week 4

  • SMU is the home dog against TCU but has won the last two meetings going back to 2019

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Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan Wolverines

The line on this game is Wolverines -17.  After home field advantage is factored into the power ratings, we get a number of 15.46.  This gives us an overlay of 1.5. 

Both teams come into this game with 3-0 records Straight Up and 2-1 Against The Spread.

We have some recent history between these two teams and Michigan has beaten Maryland by 20 or more points in six games since 2016.

Maryland may be a better team, and that is certainly reflected in the odds.  Maryland was a +16 dog at home last season and would have been around a +21 dog had they been playing in Michigan as they are this weekend.

Six straight ATS wins by Michigan, something has to give.  This very well might be the year that happens, especially with the overlay detected.

Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers

While the line on this game was on the -6.5 very early, it has yet to touch this number as of Thursday.  The line has only briefly sat on the -7.5 at a few books.

We get a number of 8.7 here.  This indicates an underlay of 1.5 with the line pretty steady at Auburn -7.

There is no recent (as in five year) head-to-head history here.

Once we get into Week 4 it's good to start looking at Straight Up records versus Against The Spread records.  Auburn is coming into Week 4 with a 2-1 record Straight Up and 0-3 ATS.  Assuming they win outright, it's not likely Auburn will be 0-4 Against The Spread.

There is definitely a lean on Auburn here at -7 with the clear underlay.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs

The line on this game had reached TCU -2.5 as of Thursday after opening as low as -1.   It had not hit the 3 anywhere.  We have a number of 3.89.  There is clearly a 1.5 to 3 point underlay in this game.

Southern Methodist has won the last two games in this series dating back to 2019.

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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