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The latest edition of Gemini Predicted is here and takes a look at the Bitcoin, FIFA World Cup and Brent oil trading contracts.
| Bitcoin retreats after weekend rally: The price of bitcoin briefly topped $65,000 on Monday before paring gains and pushing down toward $62,000 late on Tuesday. The move came as tech-focused stocks retreated amid increasing worries about AI spending and recent hawkish views from the Federal Reserve that could lead to interest rate hikes later this year. Gemini Predictions traders appear increasingly unwilling to concede bitcoin will trend much higher this month, giving it only a 20% chance of ending June at $65,000 or above. Trade monthly bitcoin contracts. |
| US men’s soccer edges higher in World Cup contract: After dominating Paraguay in a convincing 4-1 win in their World Cup opener, the US men’s soccer team followed it up with a dominant 2-0 win over Australia in Seattle last Friday. It marked the first time the US men’s team had won back-to-back World Cup matches since 1930. And traders have taken notice, giving the US a 53% chance of making the tournament’s quarterfinals. That would mark the club’s deepest tournament run since it made that round in the 2002 World Cup when it lost 1-0 to Germany. Trade the World Cup quarterfinals contract. |
| Oil continues to fall amid improving geopolitical picture: Brent crude oil dropped 2% on Monday to around $78, as markets continue to price out the geopolitical risk premium built up since the US-Iran conflict shuttered the Strait of Hormuz in late February. The normalization of Persian Gulf supply flows has convinced traders that the supply shock that pushed Brent above $120 has begun to reverse. Goldman Sachs cut its Brent price forecast to $80/barrel in Q4, down from $90, and now expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July. Trade Brent oil contracts here. |
