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Ahead of Week 4 in College Football, Gambling911.com looks at the number 3 and games that had line movements just above without dipping below (i.e. 3.5). We examine the overlays and underlays using this week's Sagarin Ratings.
The line on Week 1's FAU Owls vs. Ohio Bobcats game was relatively steady but with a two-point move upwards from -3 to -5.5. The home team Ohio came in as the dog. Using this week's power ratings and tacking on home field advantage, we still come up with FAU 2.95. The line was one that did not dip below the critical 3 while also staying under the key 6 number. This game opened On the Money (-3) before becoming a 2.5 overlay.
Three other top games featured lines that hovered just above the number 3. Unlike the FAU-Ohio game, none of these touched that number. In three of four of these games, the home team covered. Iowa State as the +3.5 road dog was the exception.
These other three game lines were relatively stable when compared to the fluid FAU-Ohio line.
Iowa State +3.5 to +4 Iowa (dog Iowa State covers and wins by 3) Iowa State - 1.71 Wrong Team Favored 5 to 6 point overlay
BYU +3.5 (+4) Oregon (Favorite Oregon wins big) Oregon 9.28 Underlay of 6 points.
MSU +3.5 Washington (Favorite Washington wins by 11) Wash 7.71 Underlay of 4 points.
Oregon and Washington were two favorites within this group that covered in a big way as home favorites. Using the Week 4 Sagarin Ratings, the lines on both games were 4 to 6 point underlays.
This sampling is relatively low, but there were also four other games where the line crossed the key 3 in both directions (2.5 and 3.5).
In each of those games the favorite covered (the Houston-Texas Tech game could have gone either way depending on when the bet was placed).
All but one of those featured underlays.
This provides us with some decent data early on. Six of eight games with a line just above the number 3 or went above AND below that number had the favorites cover.
Your Power 10 were as follows, courtesy of Sagarin:
Alabama (96.55)
Georgia (96.03)
Ohio State (95.26)
Oklahoma (90.24)
Michigan (88.35)
Penn State (86.51)
USC (86.43)
Texas (86.03)
Ole Miss (86.02)
Utah (85.88)
If Alabama were to host Utah this coming week, the Crimson Tide would be a -12.5 to -13 favorite using the 2.11 home field advantage.
- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
