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Ducks-Cougars game will feature two solid defenses and a line that appears to be On the Money based on the Sagarin power ratings calculations.
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James Madison vs. App State features an Overlay of 3 to 5 points
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3-0 Rutgers must cope with a Hawkeyes defense tied for second in FBS with 13 total points allowed.
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington State Cougars
The Oregon vs. Washington State game features a line that was a solid -6.5 favoring the road Ducks. Some of the recreatioinal books have moved to -7.
This one is On the Money according to the Sagarin power ratings as we get a number of 6.68 favoring Oregon.
A recent comparable game here was Middle Tennessee +6.5 down from +7 vs. James Madison where the favorite covered big and the magic number was 6.03, On the Money.
Oregon has beaten Washington State in the last two seasons by double digits.
Kyle Kensing of Athlon calls Oregon's loss to Georgia in Week 1 "an aberration" and believes both these teams have surprisingly dominating defenses.
"Washington State's defensive play thus far is among the most under-the-radar developments of 2022," he writes.
The Ducks were a -13.5 home favorite against Washington last season and won by two touchdowns.
This one we believe will be an Oregon touchdown win.
James Madison vs. App State
FanDuel has had a line of Mountaineers -7.5 to -6.5. DraftKings has gone from 7.5 to -7. BetOnline had the number at -8.5 and that's dipped to -7. Bovada has also gone from -8.5 to -7.
With the power ratings we get a number of 3.51 favoring Appalachian State, so we are looking at an Overlay that's ranged from 3 to 5 points over the course of the week.
The five games that have stayed at -7 and above have all been On the Money or Underlays with the favorite covering in three and dog in two.
The Mountaineers are probably the most fun team to watch this season. Just don't watch their games if you have a heart condition.
Iowa vs. Rutgers
This is both teams' Big Ten opener Saturday at Piscataway, N.J. Rutgers must cope with a Hawkeyes defense tied for second in FBS with 13 total points allowed.
Not surprisingly, the Scarlett Knights enter Saturday morning as a +8 home dog. The number has trended 7.5 to 8 just about everywhere.
The power ratings from Sagarin, even with the home field advantage factored in for Rutgers, gives us a magic number of 12.23 favoring the Hawkeyes. That's a four to four-and-a-half point Underlay.
There are two comparable games to analyze.
North Carolina -7.5 to -7 versus Georgia State did see the dog cover as well as a push depending on the number as the Tar Heels won by 7 points. There was a number of 11.23 and Underlay 4 points.
Also we had Missouri the +8 to +7.5 road dog lose badly to Kansas with a number of 13.69 and Underlay of 5.5 to 6 points.
Iowa winning outright and failing to cover gives us a 2022 record of 3-1 SU and 1-3 Against The Spread. That's a bit of a hard pill to swallow.
Since 2017, as a road favorite, Iowa is 12-1 Straight Up. As a home underdog, Rutgers is 3-21 Straight Up over that span.
We are gonna go with Iowa +7.5
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
