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Betting Previews College Football 2022 Week 4: Florida vs. Tennessee, Texas vs. Texas Tech

Written by:
Mary Montgomery
Published on:
Sep/23/2022

  • An underlay of up to 6 points has been detected on the Longhorns-Red Raiders game

  • Tennessee is looking for its first win over Florida after five straight losses

  • As a favorite since 2017, the Golden Gophers have lost only six of 29 games outright

  • It does appear that the wrong team might be favored in the Notre Dame vs. UNC game

Texas vs. Texas Tech Betting Preview

The line on this game has moved from Texas -5 to -7.  Some books had the number as low as -4 at open on Sunday but that quickly shot up to -5.  We only briefly witnessed a handful of offshore books cross above 7 as of Friday overnight.  The power ratings with home field advantage added in give us a number of 11.22, which means we have a 4 to 6 point underlay.

Texas comes into this game 2-1 Straight Up and 3-0 Against The Spread.  They have had a field day with the Red Raiders over the last four years, though in 2020 the game went into overtime at Texas Tech. In fact, the last two games played at Texas Tech were 7-point wins by the Longhorns.

Nearly 80% of bets were coming in on Texas.

Florida vs. Tennessee Betting Preview

The line on Florida vs. Tennessee hit -11 favoring the Vols by 7:30 pm ET Friday evening.  The line has trended from -9.5 to 11.  The power ratings give us a number of 11.56, which puts this one right On the Money after opening as a 2-point Underlay.

A comparable game to look at would be Texas Tech vs. NC State, which went from -9.5 to -10.5 and resulted in the favorite NC State covering by 13 points.  That line was On the Money as well.

A cover here by Tennessee would see the Vols go up 4-0 Straight Up and Against The Spread.

Florida, we remind you, has dominated Tennessee in recent years with five straight wins. 

At -11, action was closer to 60% on the Vols. 

Tennessee only beat Pittsburgh at home by 7 points two weeks ago.  The Panthers, however, are four points better than Florida on the power ratings. 

Gambling911.com sees this one falling on Tennesee by 12 points

Minnesota vs. MSU Betting Preview

The line on the Minnesota vs. Michigan State game has moved from Golden Gophers -1 to -3.  This one had not crossed the critical number 3 by late Friday evening.

From the team power ratings with home field advantage added in we get a number of Minnesota 0.23.  This one had been On the Money and was now a 2.5 Overlay.

We have a comparable game to look at here.

North Carolina was a road dog of +2.5 to +3 at App State and a line that was On the Money. UNC, the dog, won by 2 points.  This is actually somewhat more favorable towards the Spartans.

Minnesota was looking to go 4-0 Straight Up and Against The Spread.  MSU is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS.

MSU has won the last five games in this series.

As a favorite since 2017, the Golden Gophers have lost only six of 29 games outright (79.3%).

J.P. Scott of Athlon Sports observes that Minnesota may feel the impact of Autman-Bell's absence early on but they appear to have a clear advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

He points out also that Michigan State got exposed in a number of areas against Washington last week.

Our lean here will be Minnesota on the moneyline.

Notre Dame vs. UNC Betting Preview

North Carolina is a -2.5 home favorite versus a Notre Dame team that was all the rage ahead of this season and already has two losses under its belt.  The number at one points was on the -1.

We get a number of 7.45 favoring the Irish.  In other words the wrong team is favored and there is in the neighborhood of a 10-point overlay as a result.

The Mississippi State vs. LSU game is probably the best comparable here as we had an overlay of 7 points with the wrong team favored by -2.5 (not crossing the -3) and the Tigers won big.  This is a slightly different scenario in that the road team was favored, Notre Dame on the road is not.

Texas San Antonio -2 to -2.5 vs. Army is another comparable, though here the favorite won by 3 points (covering by a half point).  The wrong team was favored and we had an overlay of 4 points.

The Irish have handled UNC over three games dating back to 2017.

Our lean is on Notre Dame +2.5.

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com

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