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Betting Odds, Overlays, Underlays and Line Moves: Duke vs. KU, Baylor vs. Iowa State

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:
Sep/23/2022

  • The Duke vs. Kansas game appears to be right on the money based on power ratings numbers

  • The Jayhawks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game

  • The Baylor vs. Iowa State line also looks to be accurate

  • Iowa State is 23-3 Straight Up as a home favorite since 2017

Duke vs. Kansas

The Duke Blue Devils roll into Kansas as a +7 dog coming off the +8.5.  No book had gone under the number 7 as of Friday.  The power ratings give us a number of 7.84, which pretty much has the current spread on the money since Tuesday with the line hovering between -7 and -7.5 depending on the book. 

A good comparable to this game would be West Virginia +7/+7.5 vs Pittsburgh whereby the dog mostly covered with 7-point loss and many books offering +7.5 at some points during the week. The number was on the money according to the power ratings from that week.

Both teams are 3-0 Straight Up while Duke has gone 2-1 Against The Spread and Kansas has covered in all three games.

Last year, Duke was a -16.5 home favorite against Kansas and managed to cover with a 52-33 win.

The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big 12. but are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games and 0-5 Against The Spread in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Jayhawks are 6-0 Against The Spread in their last 6 games overall and are probably due for an ATS loss.

The Jayhawks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

The line was drifting down despite KU seeing between 65% to 69% of the action as of Friday.

A few key points to make about these two teams:

  • Kansas has yet to allow a sack.
  • The Jayhawks running game is averaging over 7 yards per carry.
  • Kansas does have a high powered offense.
  • Duke's passing game has been consistently accurate.
  • The Duke defense is generating plenty of takeaways.
  • The Duke defense and secondary, however, are a little suspect.

This will likely be the Blue Devils first test of the season as they are going to have their hands full with quarterback Jalon Daniels.

Quite a few experts across the Net are predicting a Kansas blowout here. 

We have Kansas winning by 6 to 7 points and believe this one might be a push for some.

Baylor vs. Iowa State

The Cyclones will face off against Kansas next week.  In their game against Baylor, Iowa State opened at -1 and have been hovering between -2.5 and -3 heading into the weekend.  From the power rating differentials we get a number of ISU 2.21.  These two teams pretty much have identical power ratings prior to tacking on the home field advantage.  This one is On the Money.

North Carolina +2.5 to +3  versus App State is a great comparable here with the Tar Heels (dog) covering and another line that was On the Money.

The home team has won the last four in this series dating back to 2018.  The teams have split wins and losses with Baylor victorious at home by two points last season.  The Bears were a +6.5 dog in that one played on September 25, nearly exactly a year ago.

Iowa's pass rush hasn't been great while Baylor's running game is solid.

All this being said, Iowa State is 23-3 Straight Up as a home favorite since 2017 so hard to pass up the Cyclones on the moneyline here. We can see Iowa State winning by just 1 to 2 points here.

As an away underdog, Baylor has only won three of seventeen games since 2017

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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