Sports Betting: WSJ Reports What Carrie Stroup Has Known All Along

Written by:
Payton
Published on:
Dec/23/2010
Carrie Stroup

That fair haired maiden and Gambling911.com elite reporter Carrie Stroup has been offering up her NFL picks here the entire season.  As a Sportsbook.com “insider”, she knows where the public action is going when it comes to the game spreads.

“I look at teams that are getting 80 percent or more of the betting action then usually bet against them,” says Stroup.

The rationale is that “the house always wins in the end”.

“Usually I’ll just stick with the top 2 or 3 teams getting the most volume and go against those teams.  In the long run, the record should be just above 50 percent.  I won’t pick the Detroit Lions if they are getting 90 percent of the action against Arizona if the game as a whole is not getting significant volume.”

Stroup’s system was analyzed Thursday in the Wall Street Journal.

The paper reports that Daniel Fabrizio, president of the website Sportsinsights.com, has found that when one team garners at least 80% of the bets, the other team wins against the spread 53.2% of the time.

“That is pretty much the ratio I’ve been striving for,” said Stroup. 

(Carrie's picks are regularly available on the Gambling911.com website prior to game time)

 

Her focus in recent weeks has been exclusive to NFL.

“I may start looking at NBA and College Basketball games in the coming weeks, but the NFL affords a few days to review action between when the line is initially posted and the game is played.”

People who bet against every favorite that received at least 80% of the bets would have made money in six of the last eight years, including this season, the Wall Street Journal points out.

Since 2003, the fewer bets an NFL team gets, the greater chance you'd win your bet against the spread. Here are the numbers when the less-bet team is also an underdog.

PCT OF BETS          WINS VS. SPREAD         LOSSES VS. SPREAD         WIN PCT

50%                           763                           732                                    51%

45%                           681                           653                                    51%

40%                           584                           532                                    52.3%

35%                           457                           419                                    52.2%

30%                           320                           290                                    52.5%

25%                           188                           169                                    52.7%

20%                           89                           70                                    56%

 

Source: Sportsinsights.com

- Payton O'Brien, Gambling911.com Senior Editor

Gambling News

Maine Vote on Sports Betting Coming Shortly

Maine Vote on Sports Betting Coming Shortly

Maine legislators say they are 95% there but it is the other 5% they need to hash out, at which point sports betting could soon become a reality in the New England state.  Seven bills have been reduced to one.

Become a Bookie

How to Become a Bookie From Scratch

Becoming a bookie isn’t as difficult as you may think. In this guide, I will assume that you are starting from scratch and provide you with the steps to get started. There’s a lot to learn if you want to run a successful operation, but I don’t want to overwhelm anyone.

Sports Betting News: Disney Now Owns Share of Draftkings?

Sports Betting News: Disney Now Owns Share of Draftkings?

One small part of the massive deal between the Walt Disney Company and 21st Century Fox included the stake in daily fantasy sports and sports betting company DraftKings, Legal Sports Report confirmed on Monday.

Sports Betting Forums: Top Discussions

We tap into the hottest discussions on the sports betting forums and social media.  Hot now: Disney Takes Stake in Draftkings, Negreanu Talks Game of Throne Finale, Bitcoin Profiled on 60 Minutes, More

Holzhauer Returns

Top Gambling Stories: Holzhauer Returns, High Court Ends Kenya Gambling Ad Ban

One of the most prolific gambling and sports crazed nations, Kenya, will no longer ban gambling ads, at least for now, and professional sports betting Holzhauer returns to Jeopardy Monday

Syndicate