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The last time the House needed more than one ballot to confirm a speaker was 100 years ago.
It took a month for someone to gain the majority of votes then, and it's unclear how long it might take to elect the current Speaker of the House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's loss on Tuesday January 3.
BetOnline set odds for the next speaker, and McCarthy and Steve Scalise are the overwhelming favorites. You can find the full list of 12 candidates and their respective odds below. Odds are already on the move.
Additionally, the betting total for the number of votes McCarthy will receive in Round 4 is 203.5.
Speaker odds will be updated daily until we get to an actual decision, and, as of Wednesday morning at least, this is likely to drag on.
Jim Jordan garnered most of the "Never Kevin" votes by day's end Tuesday. There were around 20 in the GOP wing holding firm for their non-support of the wannabe speaker.
Next Speaker of the House Odds
Kevin McCarthy +100
Steve Scalise +150
Jim Jordan +800
Elise Stefanik + 1200
Hakeem Jeffries +2000
Donald Trump +2500
Jim Banks +5000
Heney Stoyer +10000
James Clyburn +10000
Nancy Pelosi +15000
Adam Schiff +20000
Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez +25000
This is Hurting the GOP Bigly
While this speaker battle bores on, BetOnline's political odds analyst, Paul Krishnamurty, said the saga is only hurting the GOP's chances in the 2024 Election.
“In light of the chaos surrounding the vote to be next Speaker of the House of Representatives, we’ve shortened its odds for a 2024 Democrat victory from +120 to +110. Republicans are still favored, but have gone from -140 to -130.
“The disappointing midterm results have sparked what is likely to be an ongoing crisis within the GOP. Whoever emerges as Speaker seems sure to struggle to unite their very narrow majority in the House, and the inevitable prominence of divisive, obstructionist candidates may further damage the party’s brand nationally.
“We still favor a generic Republican ahead of a generic Democrat to win the presidency, partly due to the considerable weight of money pouring behind Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, and also Joe Biden’s persistently low approval rating. Nevertheless, recent momentum in U.S. politics lies with the Democrats and losing the House may yet turn out to be a blessing in disguise.”
One thing is a sure bet. With the slim majority and anamosity coming from the House Freedom Caucus, whomever does get chosen likely won't be sticking around for long. It's almost as if BetOnline is offering odds on the one job nobody should ever want.
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com and BetOnline Press was used for this report
