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MADISON, Wis (Gambling911.com) - Despite concerns over her potential electability based on what some view as a more extreme ideology, Francesca Hong comes into Tuesday's Democratic primary for the Wisconsin governor's race as a "lock" as far as the oddsmakers are concerned.
She's listed at -4000 odds to beat David Crowley (he pays $1000 for every $100 bet with a win).
To date, the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor has ranked right up there with California's governor race and the Virginia special election in terms of Gambling911.com readership popularity on the political betting front. This is despite Hong's huge -4000 price tag (you'd have to bet $400 to win $10).
We should caution that Abdul El Sayed did have similar odds entering last week's Michigan Democratic senate primary and only won by a one percent margin. Oddsmakers at BetOnline had El Sayed a big favorite to win by more than 20 points.
It's what comes next where Hong is facing headwinds.
BetOnline has the Republican candidate winning the state's governor race come November, with the assumption being Hong wins the Democratic nomination. Tom Tiffany is the overwhelming favorite/presumptive GOP nominee in that state.
Hong's controversial past social media postings include a desire to defund and ultimately abolishing police. Her campaign now says she does not support abolishing police departments or cutting police budgets.
Hong, a business owner who has represented Wisconsin's 76th Assembly district in the Wisconsin State Assembly since 2021, also identifies as a democratic socialist. That classification is certainly attractive to a good chunk of the Democratic left but potentially problematic in a Wisconsin general election.
But perhaps her biggest hurdle will be overcoming past comments and posts criticizing the beloved American holiday Thanksgiving. The GOP has already successfully painted Hong as a candidate who wants to abolish Thanksgiving.
For his part, Tiffany has warned Republicans in the state not to cross over and vote for Hong in Tuesday's primary.
"I would recommend they vote on the Republican side," Tiffany said Aug. 10, one day before voters head to the polls. "If you're a Republican, I recommend that you vote Republican, because there are plenty of primaries going on around the state that are going to decide the future of Wisconsin."
"We want the best Republicans possible that are going to be running in this election in 2026," Tiffany said.
Tiffany has represented Wisconsin’s 7th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives since May 2020.
Democrats look to portray Tiffany as too closely aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump and too conservative for a statewide Wisconsin electorate.
Tiffany's vulnerability is with suburban swing voters. Tiffany announced that he would object to Electoral College certification and subsequently voted against certifying results from Arizona and Pennsylvania. His own congressional office documented his plan to object before January 6.
Nonetheless, Tiffany is the -200 favorite to win the general election for Wisconsin governor come November as of now. A lot can change over the next three months however.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
