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The West Virginia vs. South Florida line was coming in at -1.5 in favor of the Mountaineers for Thursday night’s game.
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: West Virginia -1.5 & 55
Opening Line & Total: South Florida -1 & 56
No. 23 West Virginia still has hopes of winning a conference it was so heavily favored to dominate this season, but it must first take care of a slumping South Florida squad looking to become bowl eligible.
For the Mountaineers to capture the Big East crown, they have to beat the Bulls and hope that Cincinnati beats Connecticut on Saturday to produce a three-way tie atop the standings with WVU, Cincy and Louisville, all 5-2. The tiebreaker would then go to the highest-ranking BCS team, which right now is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have eked out two straight wins, beating Cincinnati by three and edging Pittsburgh by one point. South Florida has gone 1-6 since starting the season 4-0, but the team remains competitive with its past five losses by a combined 25 points. Bulls QB B.J. Daniels missed last game with a shoulder injury, but is expected to play in this contest. USF is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but WVU won and covered last year in an ugly 20-6 victory. Although the Bulls will keep this game close, they are 0-7 ATS at home when facing a team with a winning record since the start of last year.
West Virginia has been one of the best passing offenses in the country, ranking sixth among FBS schools with 351 passing YPG. QB Geno Smith leads the Big East, and ranks ninth in the nation with 333 total YPG. He has 25 TD and just 5 INT this season, and has thrown the football particularly well in Big East play. Smith has completed 65% of his passes for 2,032 yards (339 YPG), 13 TD and 2 INT against conference foes. He also had a big game in Pittsburgh last year, completing 24-of-31 passes for 219 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. With South Florida ranking 83rd in FBS in pass defense (245 YPG), expect another big performance from Smith. WVU has been pretty woeful in running the football (117 YPG, 101st in nation), and doesn’t figure to chew up yards against USF’s 14th-ranked run defense (106 YPG). Defensively, WVU has given up 31+ points five times, but is allowing a respectable 335 total YPG (25th in nation).
Unlike Smith who has been excellent in Big East play, Daniels has not. In his five conference tilts, Daniels has completed just 56% of his passes for 1,210 yards (242 YPG), 4 TD and 4 INT. He has also carried the ball 75 times for 342 yards (4.6 YPC) and 3 TD in these five games. Daniels had an excellent 2009 home meeting with WVU (232 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT; 104 rush yds), but was dreadful in Morgantown last year (119 pass yds, 0 TD, 3 INT; 4 rush yds). The Bulls will try to establish the run with Daniels and the team’s leading rusher Darrell Scott (72 rush YPG, 5.2 YPC), as WVU has surrendered 160 rushing YPG over its past five contests. The Mountaineers rank 30th in the land in passing defense (197 YPG) and limited Pittsburgh to 137 net passing yards last week.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
