TNF Betting Odds: Falcons vs. Saints
Carrie Stroup here with your TNF betting odds for the Falcons vs. Saints. Sportsbook.ag Line: Atlanta -3.5, Total: 52
ATLANTA FALCONS (5-0) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-4)
The undefeated Falcons kick off Week 6 with a Thursday night visit to the Big Easy to face their divisional rival Saints.
Atlanta (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) rolls into this week’s matchup riding high atop the NFC South after eking out an overtime win against the Redskins last Sunday. At the other end of the division, New Orleans (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) coughed up four turnovers en route to a 39-17 loss to the Eagles in a sloppy defeat last Sunday.
The last time the teams met at the Superdome the Falcons came to town with five victories under their belt (though it occurred in Week 16 of the 2014 season). Atlanta won that game 30-14, eliminating New Orleans from playoff contention. The Saints have a slight edge over the Falcons since 1992, with a 24-22 SU record, though Atlanta has been more successful ATS, with a record of 28-18.
The matchup trends favor the Falcons, who are 9-1 ATS in Thursday night games since 1992, though it should be noted they are 6-23 ATS after gaining 375+ total yards in consecutive games over the same period. The Saints have some coaching trends in their favor, with head coach Sean Payton posting a record of 12-2 ATS versus very good offensive teams (27+ PPG) and 20-8 ATS coming off a road loss during his tenure in New Orleans.
Atlanta has stayed fairly healthy this year, with only LB Justin Durant (elbow) designated as questionable for Thursday. Several Saints came out of Sunday banged up, and DL Bobby Richardson (hip), OT Terron Armstead (knee), G Jahri Evans (knee), and P Thomas Morstead (quad) are all questionable for Thursday.
The Falcons’ high-flying offense has been the key to their success so far this season. Captained by QB Matt Ryan, the team ranks 3rd in the NFL in points scored (32.4 PPG), 4th in total yards (2,031), 6th in fewest turnovers allowed (5, though 3 of them occurred last week). Ryan is only 5-8 SU (7-6 ATS) in this series, but has always enjoyed visiting the Superdome with 328 passing YPG, 9 TD and 2 INT in those five visits.
Atlanta also leads the league in rushing touchdowns (10), thanks to the explosive rise of RB Devonta Freeman. The second-year pro already has 645 total yards (129 YPG) and is coming off a season-high 153 rushing yards on 5.7 YPC in the win over Washington.
Superstar WR Julio Jones has been relatively quiet the past two weeks while dealing with nagging hamstring and toe issues, only hauling in five catches on 10 looks for 67 yards on Sunday. He did manage to find the end zone for the first time since Week 3, though it was on a recovered fumble.
Atlanta’s defense has performed ably, allowing 22.4 PPG to opponents (15th out of 32), while generating 10 turnovers (6th out of 32). The Falcons have been elite against the run outside of the red zone, allowing a league best 392 yards, though they’ve given up eight rushing touchdowns, second-worst in the NFL.
The Saints’ offense, led by future Hall-of-Fame QB Drew Brees, has been predictably productive, ranking 7th in the league for total offense (1,937), 3rd in passing yards (1,510), and 6th in First Downs (112). They’ve had some struggles finding the end zone, however, scoring just 103 points on the season (21st out of 32), and ball protection has been a season-long issue (10 turnovers, 26th out of 32). Tellingly, their only win on the season, a 26-20 overtime victory over the Cowboys, happened to be the Saints’ only game without a giveaway so far this year. Brees is 13-6 SU (10-9 ATS) all-time versus the Falcons, averaging 305 passing YPG with 36 TD and 22 INT. He'll try to take the pressure off a lackluster ground game with 85 YPG on 3.6 YPC.
New Orleans’ defense has been the team’s Achilles heel thus far this season, giving up the most yards (2,045) and first downs (122). The club is surrendering 28.6 PPG (29th out of 32), and allowing opposing QBs to gain 8.4 net yards per pass attempt, a league worst. Penalties have also plagued the Saints, who average nine calls against and 89 yards lost in home games so far this season.
