Texas Bowl: Illinois vs. Baylor Spread

The Texas Bowl goes off Wednesday evening at 6 pm EST and features an Illinois vs. Baylor spread of Baylor -1 across the board.  The line initially opened at Baylor -2.  The Bears were getting just over 60 percent of the betting action on the spread.  A whopping 90 percent plus of those betting the total were on the OVER 63.

This is expected to be a very competitive game, which is clearly illustrated by the short line.

The Scouts Edge is saying Baylor by 4 points in this year’s Texas Bowl.

Expect a close game. Baylor will have its hands full trying to slow Illinois' dynamic ground game and Scheelhaase is capable of making some plays with his arm against a suspect Bears' pass defense. On the other hand, Baylor can move the ball against an inconsistent Illinois defense thanks in large part to Griffin's ability to extend plays and drives with his feet. The Fighting Illini got scorched by Michigan's mobile quarterbacks in early November, and playing in its home state gives Baylor the edge. The Bears will feed off the crowd and make enough big plays to get the win.

Some important trends to consider before betting on this game included:

The Fighting Illini are 5-0 Against The Spread in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

Illinois is an impressive 8-1 ATS as an underdog in their last 9 games.

The Fighting Illini are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games on grass.

The Fighting Illini are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.

The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.

The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Baylor is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss and 11-5 ATS after a Straight Up loss. 

The Bears are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home.

 - Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com