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Spread on the 2011 Super Bowl: Is The Line Accurate?

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Feb/05/2011
Spread on the 2011 Super Bowl

The spread on the 2011 Super Bowl was hovering between -2.5 and -3 in favor of the Green Bay Packers.  55 percent of the action on the spread was on Green Bay.  Most of the money line was going towards Pittsburgh however.

So how accurate is this line?

Sagarin had this one at even.  Based on schedule, Green Bay would have a slight 1-point advantage.  The Pure Points model had the Packers with a 2-point advantage.

But Analytic Investors LLC in Los Angeles, which has been correct since 2005, predicts Green Bay will cover the spread.

“We believe the Packers will be able to cover the 2½-point spread,” said Brian Haskin, head of investment strategy at Analytic, in an interview with Bloomberg. “Bettors overvalue teams in the playoffs depending on how they did in the regular season.”

He added that bettors “aren’t having as much confidence in the Green Bay Packers as they should,” he said. “And as for the Steelers, investors are expecting too much from them.”

Then there is the Madden NFL 11 Simulations for the 2011 Super Bowl.

The Green Bay Packers were predicted to be Super Bowl 2011 champions after winning 64 of 100 Madden NFL 11 Simulations on the PS3.

More importantly for the sports bettor, 35 of these wins were by 10 or more points.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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