Should San Francisco Be Favored Against The Jaguars Sunday?

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Nov/11/2023

San Francisco hopes to end a three-game slide as they come to Jacksonville.  That will be no easy task as the Jaguars are on a bit of a streak of their own with five straight victories.  AcePerHead internal action data, provided exclusively to Gambling911.com, shows that around 65% of those betting the spread still believe in the 49ers as a -3 favorite.

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Important Injury Updates

For San Francisco it's great news as wide receiver Deebo Samuel returns from a two-game absence after suffering a shoulder injury back in Week 6 against Cleveland.  Since his absence the 49ers offense has barely cracked 20 points.  With him on the field the team consistently went above 30 points.

There is still bad news for the 49ers Javon Hargrave and Trent Williams are both listed as questionable coming into this game for San Fran.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Zay Jones returned to the practice field Wednesday for the first time since re-injuring his knee during a Week 5 game against the Buffalo Bills.

Jones was reluctant to say whether he returned too quickly from his prior injury.

“That’s hard to say; you can get hurt in any game you play in,” Jones said. “There’s always that risk factor. I wanted to be out there with my team, so I don’t regret that decision. I think whenever I can be out there at any level to give my best effort for my team, that’s what I’m gonna do.

“This training staff wouldn’t put me back on the field if they didn’t think I was capable of playing. It is what it is at this point. I’m just looking forward to making the next step, maybe tomorrow.”

His chances of playing on Sunday remained slim.

Jaguars a Home Dog?

The line on this game was either -2.5 or -3 favoring the visitor depending on the sportsbook.

We have the Jaguars favored at 0.34, suggesting the wrong team is favored and there is a 3-point overlay. These overlays in the 2.5/3 point range without going over the three do tend to work out well for the favorite, in this case San Francisco. 

The books have moved the line in accordance with the action.

One word of caution is that we're seeing some of the better NFL cappers backing the Jaguars here.

49ers vs. Jaguars Player and Team Prop Bets

Brock Purdy's passing yards total was coming in at 244.5.

The San Francisco starting quarterback completed 22-of-31 passes for 365 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the 49ers’ 31-17, Week 8 loss to the Bengals, adding an additional 57 rushing yards.

Trevor Lawrence completed 24-of-32 attempts for 292 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the Jaguars’ 20-10 Week 8 win against the Steelers, adding one rush for ten yards.  His passing yards total comes in at 242.5.

Head to Head Trends

Most Receiving Yards: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs Evan Engram (JAX)

-193

+127

Most Receiving Yards: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs Christian Kirk (JAX)

-170

+112

Most Receiving Yards: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs Calvin Ridley (JAX)

-157

+104

Most Receptions: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs Calvin Ridley (JAX)

-148

+102

Most Receptions: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs Christian Kirk (JAX)

-109

-132

Most Receptions: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs Evan Engram (JAX)

+123

-179

Most Pass Completions: Brock Purdy (SF) vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

+125

-186

Most Passing TDs: Brock Purdy (SF) vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

-129

-112

Most Passing Yards: Brock Purdy (SF) vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

-122

-124

Most Receiving Yards: Calvin Ridley (JAX) vs Deebo Samuel (SF)

-148

-103

Most Receiving Yards: Calvin Ridley (JAX) vs George Kittle (SF)

-205

+133

Most Receiving Yards: Calvin Ridley (JAX) vs Jauan Jennings (SF)

-556

+300

Most Receptions: Calvin Ridley (JAX) vs George Kittle (SF)

-223

+149

Most Receptions: Calvin Ridley (JAX) vs Deebo Samuel (SF)

-134

-108

Most Receptions: Calvin Ridley (JAX) vs Jauan Jennings (SF)

-1000

+459

Most Receiving Yards: Christian Kirk (JAX) vs George Kittle (SF)

-201

+129

Most Receiving Yards: Christian Kirk (JAX) vs Jauan Jennings (SF)

-589

+309

Most Receiving Yards: Christian Kirk (JAX) vs Deebo Samuel (SF)

-141

-107

Most Receptions: Christian Kirk (JAX) vs Deebo Samuel (SF)

-182

+125

Most Receptions: Christian Kirk (JAX) vs George Kittle (SF)

-313

+199

Most Receptions: Christian Kirk (JAX) vs Jauan Jennings (SF)

-2000

+635

Most Rushing Yards: Christian McCaffrey (SF) vs Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX)

-118

-127

Most Receiving Yards: Deebo Samuel (SF) vs Evan Engram (JAX)

-120

-127

Most Receptions: Deebo Samuel (SF) vs Evan Engram (JAX)

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

+169

-257

Most Receiving Yards: Evan Engram (JAX) vs George Kittle (SF)

-182

+119

Most Receiving Yards: Evan Engram (JAX) vs Jauan Jennings (SF)

-556

+295

Most Receptions: Evan Engram (JAX) vs George Kittle (SF)

-477

+275

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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