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Ravens-Chiefs Prediction: Charlie Weiss Situation a Big Enough Distraction?

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Jan/08/2011
Ravens-Chiefs Prediction

Gambling911.com has your Ravens-Chiefs prediction.  Baltimore was one of two road favorites during the 2011 NFL Wildcard Playoffs, the other being the Saints in Seattle. 

Unlike the Seahawks, the Chiefs have played superb football throughout the regular season and enter the Playoffs with an impressive 10-6 record.  Kansas City has not had a winning record in years.  The Ravens come to town with a 12-4 record.  Amazingly, Kansas City has yet to reach the Gambling911.com NFL Top 10 Power Rankings even during the Wildcard Playoffs where we had them ranked number 11.  Simply put, the Chiefs are getting little respect.

Can The Chiefs Beat The Ravens?  We won’t focus too much on the spread as Kansas City is a mere +3 underdog.  What factors might allow the Chiefs to beat Baltimore at home?

Well that might very well be the key.  Kansas City is considered one of the toughest places in which to play.  The Chiefs only lost a single game at home during the regular season. 

Other variables to consider:  The Chiefs have top returners, The Chiefs' defense allowed 6.5 yards per passing attempt this season and they have an exception ground attack.  

Note that the Ravens have some of the fewest turnovers in the league during this past regular season.  With that said, Baltimore does not create a whole lot of turnover opportunities either.  The Ravens have top specialists and one of the best offensive players in Ray Rice. 

 

Charlie Weiss Distraction Gives Ravens An Edge:  Word leaked out in recent days that Charlie Weiss had accepted the offensive coordinator position at the University of Florida and this has become quite a distraction for the team especially after last week’s performance.

The press has been extremely critical of veteran offensive coordinator Weiss in regard to how the Chiefs were manhandled by Oakland in a 10-31 Week 17 loss.

“Every game is a different set of encyclopedias,” Weis said Friday in his weekly news conference. “The game last week really has no bearing on the game this week, other than the fact (the Ravens) get to watch that. If I was them, I’d be encouraged about what I watched on tape. I probably would have enjoyed it.

“But the flip side is those players are watching that and saying, ‘Oh, we’re going to get after them and we’re going to get to them.’ I think you’ll see a different (Chiefs) team show up.”

There are concerns he won’t be focusing on Baltimore.

“Let’s just worry about the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at noon,” Weis said. “That’s what we’re here for.”

Kansas City Not Tested:  The Chiefs have won 5 of 6 previous to their Week 17 loss.  All of those games, however, were to teams with losing records.  On the other hand, Baltimore has won 8 of its last 10.  Two of those wins were against very solid teams, Tampa Bay and New Orleans.  The two losses were close games against Top 3 teams, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. 

Trends Slightly Favor Baltimore:  While there weren’t a whole lot of trends suggesting either team maintains a significant edge here, a few of the KC trends are somewhat telling.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.  The Chiefs are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, though we can’t read too much into that particular stat as Kansas City has performed especially well following a Straight Up loss overall, going 6-1 ATS.

Final Outcome: Coupled with the Charlie Weiss distractions, Baltimore’s Playoffs experience vs. Kansas City’s lack thereof and the Chiefs having not played a tough team like Baltimore in recent games, Gambling911.com believes the Ravens should be able to handle Kansas City on the road by more than the current spread, which was -3 just about everywhere. 

Note that the Ravens were the most bet on team of the Wildcard Playoffs Against The Spread.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com 

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