Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction – Free Pick

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Don Shapiro
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Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction

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The Miami Dolphins welcome in the New England Patriots tonight in an AFC East clash on ESPN at 8:35 EDT. Both of these teams have winning records, and both would like to head into their bye weeks with a win. The Patriots are 1.5 road favorites tonight, with a total of 47.5 points expected.

Miami gets their 2nd consecutive home game in primetime settings. The Dolphins would like a far different outcome this time, as they don't want to lose back to back home games. Miami is 2-1 both SU and ATS this season. The Dolphins won their only other game outright as the listed underdog, against the Vikings. With a SU win today, the Dolphins will have their best start to a season since 2003. Miami is only averaging 17.3 PPG, but their is hope that their offense is becoming more diverse. QB Chad Henne is coming off a very impressive game last week, and is likely to throw the ball early and often against this Patriots defense. WR Brandon Marshall has become close with Henne, as he's easily the go to option amongst the Dolphins receiver. Marshall had 10 catches for 166 YDS last week in the loss to the Jets. Defensively, the Dolphins have held their opponents to 17 PPG. After their disappointing game last week against the Jets, they will be eager to put that performance behind them. Miami typically enjoys playing in October, as they are 6-2 ATS in their past 8 games during this month. The Dolphins are also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games against AFC East opponents.

The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Over is 13-5 in their last 18 Monday games.

New England has put up 38 PTS in each of their victories this season. The Patriots are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS overall this year. As great as QB Tom Brady and his passing game is, the Patriots defense is in equally as poor. New England has given up at least 24 PTS in each game they've played this season. The Patriots have allowed an average of 27.3 PPG, the 5th worst in the NFL. Making matters worse is that the opponents New England has faced this year aren't known for their offenses. Brady and his offensive mates are going to have to carry this team all year long. Brady is 4th in the NFL in QB Rating at 109.1 and 2nd in the NFL is passing TD's with 8. Brady has a multitude of passing targets, including emerging TE Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez has 13 receptions for 211 YDS this season. WR's Randy Moss and Wes Welker have combined for 6 TD receptions this season. New England lost both games ATS against the Dolphins last season. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC East opponents. New England has played to the under in 7 of their past 10 road games overall.  

The Patriots are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite. The Under is 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction has a final score of 27-24 in favor of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins +1.5 is the Side of the Day!

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