Patriots-Bills Betting Line Heads Down to -7

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Patriots-Bills Betting Line

After opening at -10, the Patriots-Bills betting line has managed to slide all the way down to -7 in favor of New England at some online sportsbooks.  Nearly 60 percent of those betting this number were still on the Pats.   

Sportsbook.com Line & Total: New England -8.5 & 53.5

Opening Line & Total: NE -10 & 51.5

The Patriots look to defeat Buffalo for the 16th straight time when they travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium for Sunday’s AFC East matchup.

Usually this game is a mismatch on paper, but the Bills have flashed quite an impressive offense in their two wins, scoring a league-best 79 points. Nobody has moved the ball like New England this year, as the Patriots already have 1,126 total yards, which are 174 more than any other team in the NFL. Although the Bills haven’t beaten the Patriots since the 2003 season opener, they have kept their September matchups close, going 3-1 ATS with one-possession losses in the three covers. The Pats defense is flawed, ranked second-to-last in yardage (479 YPG), so the Bills should keep the final margin within reach with another big day from their offense.

New England QB Tom Brady has been out of this world this season, completing 72% of his passes for 940 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT (off a deflection). Four Patriots already have at least 165 receiving yards, with three of those players tallying at least two touchdowns. One of those receivers is TE Aaron Hernandez, who is expected to miss Sunday’s game with a knee injury. That should mean more targets for TE Rob Gronkowski who is averaging 17.2 yards per catch with three touchdowns. The Patriots have done a nice job running the football as BenJarvus Green-Ellis has 104 yards (4.3 YPC) and two scores.

The Bills have enough talent in their secondary to possibly contain Tom Brady, but allowing 323 passing yards to Jason Campbell and the Raiders last week, without a single sack, is a bad sign. Like Brady, Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick also has 7 TD and 1 INT this year. He has not played well against New England though, with 3 TD and 6 INT in three career meetings. Second-year WR David Nelson emerged as the go-to receiver against Oakland, catching 10 passes for 83 yards and the game-winning touchdown. With Roscoe Parrish (ankle) placed on IR Tuesday, Nelson will continue to be targeted often as the team’s best slot receiver. Last year’s No. 1 wideout, Steve Johnson has not been 100 percent because of a bothersome groin injury, but he is expected to play Sunday. But not to be overlooked is RB Fred Jackson who leads the NFL with 229 rushing yards. Jackson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, as he already has four 20-yard gains this season. The running game could suffer a bit without OT Kraig Urbek, who is out 2-to-4 weeks after sustaining a knee injury last week.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

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