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Carrie Stroup here with your Ole Miss vs. OSU betting line for New Year’s Eve: Ole Miss -7, Total: 68.5
OLE MISS REBELS (9-3) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (10-2)
No. 16 Oklahoma State makes its 10th straight bowl appearance against No. 12 Ole Miss, which is seeking a school-record-tying 10th win, when the two collide in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day.
Since 1992, the Rebels (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) are 2-0 and 1-0-1 ATS playing the Cowboys (10-2 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) in bowl games, with their most recent win coming in a 21-7 victory in the 2010 Cotton Bowl.
Ole Miss enters the postseason with two straight double-digit wins as an underdog over LSU and at Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State began the year 10-0 SU, but suffered a pair of lopsided losses to both Baylor (45-35) and Oklahoma (58-23) at home to cap the regular season.
Both schools have positive trends running in their favor to cover the spread in this game. The Rebels are 33-15 ATS in games played on turf since 1992, and are 9-1 ATS when the total score is greater than or equal to 63 points under head coach Hugh Freeze. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 16-4 ATS after two straight games with 40+ pass attempts since 1992 and 16-4 ATS after allowing 17+ points in the first half in two straight games over the same time period.
Both teams will be dealing with a handful of injuries in this matchup. Rebels star DE Robert Nkemdiche has been suspended for the game, while both DE Fadol Brown (foot) and S Tony Conner (knee) are expected to miss the Sugar Bowl as well.
The Cowboys will be closely watching QB Mason Rudolph (foot), who was injured in his last game and is listed as questionable to play. FB Jeremy Seaton (lung) and TE Blake Jarwin (ribs) have been upgraded to probable.
The Ole Miss offense is potent and quick, averaging 40.2 PPG (13th in nation) and 515 total YPG, all while spending just 26:24 per game on the field. QB Chad Kelly is the team’s offensive leader, completing 277-for-425 passes (65.2%) for 3,740 yards, 27 TD and 12 INT. Kelly has added 96 runs for 436 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. A big part of the team's success through the air is courtesy of WR Laquon Treadwell, who has caught 76 passes for 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns.
RB Jaylen Walton (690 rush yds) is the Rebels’ leading rusher, contributing 5.1 yards per carry, though he’s scored only half as many rushing touchdowns as his quarterback.
The Rebels’ defense was respectable most of the season (22.8 PPG, 38th in FBS), but has been porous in the past three games where the unit has given up 32.3 PPG and 505 total YPG. This is more than 100 YPG higher than their season average of 388 YPG allowed.
The explosive Oklahoma State offense scores 41.2 PPG (8th in nation) and generates 489 total YPG for the season. QB Mason Rudolph has completed 246-of-393 passes (62.6%) for 3,591 yards (9.1 YPA), 21 TD and 9 INT. If Rudolph is unable to play due to injury, he will be spelled by QB J.W. Walsh, who completed 25-for-42 throws (59.5%) for 325 yards, 2 TD and an interception in his team’s loss to cross-state rival Oklahoma to finish the regular season. Despite playing a fraction of Rudolph’s overall snaps, Walsh has already thrown for 13 TD on the season to just 1 INT, while adding 11 touchdowns on the ground.
Sophomore WR James Washington is the leading receiver for the Cowboys, catching 52 passes for 1,077 yards (an astounding 20.7 yards per catch) and finding the end zone 10 times. He will continue to be used frequently, as the Cowboys have a weak rushing attack that gains only 132 rushing YPG on 3.7 YPC.
Like its bowl opponent, the Oklahoma State defense (29.0 PPG, 86th in FBS) is susceptible to dynamic offenses. In their past three games, the Cowboys have yielded 44.7 PPG and 545 total YPG. But this unit has forced 27 turnovers this season, which is a number five greater than what the Ole Miss defense has generated.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
