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Of the three Bowl games that stick out New Year's Day for us, the Sugar Bowl game between Ole Miss and Georgia have piqued our interest. The line has mostly hovered between UGA -6 and -6.5.
A Look at the Line Move
We have a spread of Bulldogs -6.5, yet some of the recreational books like Bovada have been flirting with the 6.
Spread action is 71 percent to 76 percent going Georgia's way. In other words, there is little reason to move the line to 6 unless the oddsmakers have a strong enough opinion on Ole Miss covering.
Gambling911.com believes they do have such an opinion, though it might not be entirely glaring.
DraftKings has only briefly moved the line down to -6.
Power Ratings Model
There is an overlay of about three points here, but that doesn't matter much where our model is concerned as overlays with the number 6.5/7 pretty much wash for us.
Consensus Cappers
Winners and Whiners likes Ole Miss in this one.
I like Ole Miss +6.5 because this feels like the kind of matchup where the Rebels can stay inside the number even if Georgia controls stretches of the game. The trends are hard to ignore — teams that won the regular‑season meeting in a same‑conference rematch are 0–7 ATS in the bowl game, which puts the pressure squarely on Georgia to repeat a result that historically doesn’t repeat. The Rebels, meanwhile, has been one of the most reliable postseason teams in the country for nearly four decades, going 16‑5‑1 ATS in bowl games since 1986, and that consistency usually shows up when the market undervalues them. Add in the Rebels’ ability to score quickly, hit explosives, and force opponents to play at their pace, and +6.5 becomes less about needing the upset and more about Ole Miss doing what it does best — hanging around, trading momentum swings, and making Georgia defend four quarters of tempo and space. This number gives them room to breathe, and their style of play tends to make every possession matter.
The Rebels last loss was on October 18, in Athens. That one was by 8 points.
They will play on a neutral field here.
We see Georgia winning by 6 points here, so Ole Miss +6.5 is a play we tend to like. On a scale of 1 to 10, it's more of a 6. That's because our model doesn't favor either side and the line movement vs. action is only slightly suggesting a strong opinion among some oddsmakers leaning Ole Miss.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
