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NFL Week 6 TNF Odds – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Oct/13/2021

Proving why he’s the GOAT, Tom Brady had one of the best games of his career last week while dealing with an injured thumb. The sore digit didn’t affect Brady, who for the first time in his career threw for more than 400 yards and five touchdowns in the same game. The older you get the longer it takes to recover and Brady has a short week with a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday getting the NFL betting week started. Tampa has been favored in every game and hit the board as a 6.5-point road favorite. Philly ended a three-game SU and ATS skid with last week’s 21-18 upset in Carolina.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
Date and Time: Thursday, October 14, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Opening NFL Odds: Tampa Bay -6.5, O/U 52
Buccaneers at Eagles TV Coverage: FOX, NFL Network

Odds Analysis

The defending Super Bowl champs have played as the favorite in every game this season laying double digits in three of the first five. The Bucs improved to 2-1 ATS in those games by whacking the Dolphins 45-17 as an 11-point favorite last week. They aren’t giving as many points, but the Bucs are again a solid favorite laying 6.5-points on the NFL betting line. Philly snapped out of its funk with a 21-18 outright road win in Carolina. The Eagles were getting 2.5-points and have played as an underdog in every contest. They ended a three-game ATS skid improving to 2-3 ATS for the year. The total hit the board at 52, one of four games with a total that high on the Week 6 board.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It took a few weeks but it looks like the Bucs have figured things out. They struggled defensively through the first three games allowing an average of nearly 30 points. The Bucs surrendered a season-high in points to the Rams in their only loss of the year, 34-24, in Week 3. They also suffered through a few weeks offensively. They had their streak of 30-point games end in LA and tallied just 19 points in Brady’s return to New England.

Everything was clicking in last week’s 45-17 win over Miami just like most expected. Let’s not get too carried away, though. The Fins have taken a step back this season and were playing with a backup quarterback. Still, the Bucs dominated amassing 558 total yards with Brady going 30 of 41 for 411 yards and five touchdowns. They also racked up 121 yards on the ground to nearly reach the total of 48. The Bucs are 4-1 against the OVER thanks to the third-highest scoring offense.

The Bucs allowed just 17 points in each of their last two games and harassed Jacoby Brissett into a pair of turnovers last week. Over the last four games the Bucs have seven takeaways and are plus-6 in turnover differential. Tampa is last in the NFL against the pass allowing over 314 yards per game with a majority of that damage coming in the first three games. The Bucs have been better, which is a scary thought for the rest of the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have to feel good about their win in Carolina overcoming a 12-point deficit to get the road upset, 21-18. For a team that looks to Jalen Hurts to supply offense, it was a surprising effort by the defense that allowed them to hang around and eventually get the winning score. “It was the definition of a team win,” coach Nick Sirianni said. And it was sparked by the defense. After allowing 851 yards and 83 points in the previous two games, the Eagles surrendered just 267 yards while getting after Sam Darnold.

Stopping Darnold and the Panthers is nice, but the Eagles have a much bigger challenge on their hands Thursday night. They could take solace knowing that the Bucs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven primetime games. And Philly is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home underdog. Could this be the perfect storm for an upset?

You have to figure the Eagles need to score more points than they did last week and Hurts has to be more productive. It’s easy to forget he’s made just nine starts and issues with inconsistency persist. But Hurts has the ability to make plays and that could frustrate Tampa’s group. Hurts came up big last week running for a pair of second half touchdowns to lift the Eagles. He threw for fewer than 200 yards and was intercepted once.

Bet Buccaneers at Eagles BookMaker.eu

The Eagles will need a similar effort to last week to get the upset. They throttled Carolina on defense and got the plays from Hurts when needed. Unfortunately that’s not likely to happen against a strong Tampa squad. Even with Brady’s injured thumb he should find enough holes to pick apart the secondary and I like the Bucs to cover, though the total is too high for me.

NFL Score Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Eagles 17

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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