NFL Preseason Week 3 Odds – Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals August 29

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Aug/27/2021

It’s been a while since Joe Burrow took a snap, but with the hopes of the Cincinnati Bengals season riding on his successful return from a serious knee injury he will get a chance against the Miami Dolphins in the preseason finale. The Bengals weren’t very good last year even with Burrow having a decent year until a crippling injury in Week 11. The first overall draft pick in 2020 was cleared to resume football activities and will see a limited number of reps on Sunday. It’s a step in the right direction for a club that desperately needs their quarterback on the field.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
Date and Time: Sunday, August 29, 2021, 4 p.m. ET
Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Opening NFL Odds: Cincinnati -1, O/U 36.5
Dolphins at Bengals TV Coverage: CBS

Odds Analysis

With Tua Tagovailoa and many of the Dolphins starters not playing on Sunday, the Dolphins are catching points. They opened as a 1-point dog with the number wagered to +1.5 before falling back to its current form. After losing their opener, the Fins bounced back with a solid performance last week beating Atlanta 37-17 covering the 6-point spread and going over the total of 35.5 on their own. They did that behind a stellar effort from Tagovailoa, so don’t expect those numbers this week. And the Bengals have shown little offensively this preseason, which is another reason why Burrow is getting some snaps. Still, I don’t expect this to be a high-scoring affair giving value to the UNDER at 36.5.

Miami Dolphins

Apparently Tagovailoa has shown the coaching that he’s ready to take over as the team leader. There were some concerns after last season that maybe he wasn’t the right guy. In his first NFL season after a near career-ending injury in college and with no preseason, maybe Tua just wasn’t ready. He is now and will rest ahead of the season opener. With three QBs on the current roster that means we’ll see plenty of Jacoby Brissett, and there’s a lot to like about what he’s done so far.

Brissett has plenty of experience working in the New England system before taking over in Indianapolis after the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck a few years ago. He also has a little history with Brian Flores when the two were in New England in 2016. I don’t know if that was enough to get him the gig, but he’s earned the backup job by completing 14 of 18 for 166 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in two exhibition games. He’ll have the benefit of playing behind the starting offensive line for the start of Sunday’s game.

“We’ve got to play the game so we’re not going to rest everybody. There will be some guys in there who will get an opportunity. But we’ll try to rest most of the  ... let’s call them ‘starters,’” Flores said. And with an expanded roster the Dolphins figure to go deep down the depth chart.

Cincinnati Bengals

A team’s current situation has a lot to do with how it approaches the preseason. It’s not so much about how a coach feels but more about getting the roster set. And the Bengals need a lot of setting with their roster. There were upgrades in free agency and the draft, but after winning only four games last year, there is plenty of room for improvement. One concern was the offensive line, which allowed 48 sacks last season. Another issue is how Burrow feels about getting behind that group again.

Nobody said it was going to be easy. After all you were the No. 1 overall pick for a reason Joe. Burrow showed a lot of promise last season throwing for 2,688 yards with 13 touchdowns while completing 65.3 percent of his passes. The Bengals were 2-7-1 in the games Burrow started.

With Burrow playing a “limited number of snaps” I think it’s safe to say he’s not going to hand the ball off every play. He has a talented group of receivers that will also get playing time. If the line can hold up in the passing game, guys like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd can wreak havoc on a secondary. The problem is we won’t see a lot of them on Sunday to make a big difference in the outcome.

Bet Dolphins at Bengals at BookMaker.eu

The Dolphins are at a point where they are pretty much set on both sides of the football. They have some roster spots to figure out, but the overall depth has improved dramatically over the last few years. And their backup QB has a big advantage over anything the Bengals trot out after Burrow, so I expect the Dolphins to prevail and I’ll happily take the points.

NFL Score Prediction: Dolphins 23, Bengals 13

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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