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NFL Futures Betting: Super Bowl LIV Futures Value Plays Part I

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:
Sep/08/2019

We hit some futures betting value plays for the NFC and AFC Championship in the previous two articles.  Now we’ll look at some value positions for the Super Bowl futures market.  In many ways, this is easy since we’ve already isolated the value teams in each conference.  If a team wins the conference obviously they’ll play in the Super Bowl—and if you bet them at a big price you’ve got a lot of options at that point.

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Since we covered both conferences in depth in the previous two articles we’ll just summarize our analysis.  Check out the NFC and AFC Championship futures articles for more in depth information.  Value Super Bowl plays will continue in Part 2:

CHICAGO BEARS +2000

Bears excessively downgraded due to opening game loss to Packers.  Sports media focusing on what they did wrong while ignoring all they did right.  The defense looks nasty holding the Packers to 10 points and 213 yards of offense.  Aaron Rodgers threw for only 166 yards.  Offense should get better—very likely rusty due to few preseason reps.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2200

Big price on a very consistent team.  They’ve been downgraded due to the loss of wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell but in terms of team chemistry they’re better off with them gone.  James Conner is a capable running back (973 yards rushing and 497 yards receiving last year).  JuJu Smith-Schuster had 1,426 yards receiving last year combined with 7 touchdowns.  Pittsburgh had the #6 total defense though they do need to tighten up the #17 scoring defense.  The offense was balanced and potent with the #4 total offense, #2 passing offense and the #6 scoring offense.  This is an experienced, well balanced team you’re getting at a big price.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +5000

Huge overreaction in the market to Andrew Luck’s retirement.  Offensive line was excellent last year allowing a NFL low 18 sacks.  The defense improved in the offseason including the line. Jacoby Brissett is a very talented quarterback who is healthy, motivated and in a good place mentally and physically.  Frank Reich is an excellent coach.  Great value on a team excessively downgraded due to Luck’s departure.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5000

The Jaguars likely have more talent on defense than any team in the league and were one of five teams that held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game.  Leonard Fournette is a solid running back if he can stay healthy.  Quarterback Foles left yesterday’s game with a shoulder injury (check status) but remember that this team was just minutes from a Super Bowl berth in 2017 with Blake Bortles under center.

TENNESSEE TITANS +8000

The offense is still a ‘work in progress’ but the defense showed some of what they’re capable of yesterday in Cleveland.  Titans one of only 8 teams with a positive point differential. Tennessee had the third best scoring defense in the league last year giving up just 18.9 PPG. Only the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens allowed fewer points. Overall, Tennessee was one of only 5 NFL teams that allowed fewer than 20 PPG.  Offensive line is finally healthy and Mariota has some good weapons around him.

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