Louisville vs. Auburn Betting Line – Week 1 College Football
Carrie Stroup here with your Louisville vs. Auburn betting line for Week 1 College Football. Sportsbook.ag Line: Auburn -11, Total: 58
No. 6 Auburn looks to kick off its season on the right foot when it travels to Atlanta Saturday to face Louisville.
The Cardinals have piled up 32 wins over the past three seasons, going 9-4 SU (7-6 ATS) last year. They have also been a great bet away from home this decade at 23-9 ATS (72%) since the 2010 season. Head coach Bobby Petrino has yet to name a starter between junior QB Will Gardner and sophomore QB Reggie Bonnafon, but what is known for Louisville is that RB Brandon Radcliff will be the focal point of the offense.
The Tigers followed up their national championship appearance in 2013 with five straight wins to begin the 2014 campaign. But the team was only 3-5 SU (1-7 ATS) after that quick start to finish with just eight wins. Do-it-all QB Nick Marshall is gone, but the Auburn coaches know that QB Jeremy Johnson is a better pure passer and should keep the passing attack lethal.
Bettors should note that excellent rushing teams (5.25+ yards per carry last year) are 40-14 ATS (74%) over the past 10 seasons when favored between 10.5 and 21 points, which obviously favors Auburn. But if Louisville's offense can put up 28 points against a rebuilt defense, the team is 98-47 ATS (68%) when scoring 28 in a game since 1992. With Tigers star WR D'haquille Williams (ankle) upgraded to probable, both programs have relatively healthy rosters to begin the season.
Whoever is eventually named the starter between QB Will Gardner (1,669 pass yds, 7.6 YPA, 12 TD, 3 INT) and QB Reggie Bonnafon (864 pass yds, 7.2 YPA, 5 TD, 4 INT) will not have much experience to work with, as five of the top six receivers from last year are gone. The best remaining options are junior WR James Quick (566 rec yds, 3 TD) and UAB transfer WR Jamari Staples (648 rec yds, 5 TD in two seasons). Junior RB Brandon Radcliff (737 rush yds, 5.1 YPC, 12 rush TD) is the clear focal point of the offense and he should greatly improve the team's subpar 143 rushing YPG (92nd in nation) on 3.6 yards per carry from a year ago.
The defense departed with seven starters, but returning DE Sheldon Rankins (9 sacks, 54 tackles, 14.5 TFL) is a monster up front, and a pair of sure tacklers remain with ILBs Keith Kelsey (87 tackles) and James Burgess (71 tackles). The team's biggest question mark is in the secondary that lost all four starters on a unit that led the nation with 26 interceptions, including 14 by Gerod Hollimon. Louisville hopes Georgia transfer S Josh Harvey-Clemons (65 tackles, 3 FR in 2013) is even better than advertised.
Nick Marshall left this Auburn offense that averaged 35.5 PPG (25th in nation) and 485 total YPG (16th in FBS), but QB Jeremy Johnson (858 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT career) is a better passer than Marshall in the spread offense. He stands tall at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, and has been extremely accurate in his collegiate career with a 73% completion rate. Auburn's ground game chewed up 256 YPG (13th in nation) last year, but lost its top three rushers. Expect a committee approach with sophomore RB Roc Thomas (214 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 2 TD) as the most experienced back on the roster.
The below-average defense (399 YPG allowed, 64th in nation) brought in new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp and provided him with eight returning starters to work with. That includes talented DT Montravius Adams (43 tackles, 8 TFL), tackling machine LB Cassanova McKinzy (91 tackles, 11 TFL) and star CB Jonathan Jones (6 INT).Muschamp's biggest worry is a thin pass rush that recorded only 1.62 sacks per game in 2014 (95th in FBS).
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
