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Georgia and No. 11 Florida will square off on Saturday in Jacksonville with first place in the SEC East on the line.
Sportsbook.ag Week 9 SEC Betting Preview
GEORGIA BULLDOGS (5-2) vs. FLORIDA GATORS (6-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Florida -3, Total: 46
A Gators win would give them a two-game lead in the division, while a Bulldogs victory would create a tie for first with just two conference games left to play for each team. After suffering consecutive losses to Alabama and Tennessee following star RB Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury, Georgia (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) got back in the win column in its last game on Oct. 17. It beat a struggling Missouri team, 9-6, but failed to cover the 15-point spread and suffered its fourth straight ATS defeat.
Florida (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is also coming off a bye week after suffering its first loss of the season at LSU, 35-28. The defeat was largely due to an inability to stop Leonard Fournette and LSU’s ground game, which ran wild for 221 yards on 5.4 YPC. The Gators had entered that game allowing just 104.8 rushing YPG.
For this series, Florida is 15-8 ATS head-to-head against Georgia since 1992 but bettors can also point to the fact that poor rushing teams (3.0 to 3.5 YPC) like the Gators facing a good rushing defense (3.0 to 3.5 YPC allowed) are just 15-50 ATS (23%) in conference games in the past five seasons.
Head coach Mark Richt is 17-6 ATS in road games following in-conference home wins in his time at Georgia. His defense, which entered the Missouri game allowing 137.5 rushing YPG, held the Volunteers to a season-low 21 yards on the ground, with a 0.95 YPC average. The Bulldogs’ fifth-leading tackler and leader in passes broken up, safety Dominick Sanders, will be unavailable for the first half, albeit due to suspension, for a targeting penalty against Missouri.
Bettors should know that the Bulldogs (33.1 PPG on the year, 26.6 in SEC play) are 102-48 ATS when scoring 28 or more points since 1992, while Florida is 0-8 ATS when allowing 28 or more points the last three years. For Georgia to reach that threshold again, it will need QB Greyson Lambert (1,276 pass yds, 8.2 YPA, 9 TD, 2 INT) to continue to limit mistakes and for backup RB Sony Michel (508 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 4 TD) to be fully recovered from his hip injury. In Michel's last SEC road game at Tennessee, he rushed for 145 yards on 22 carries (6.6 YPC).
After suspending starting QB Will Grier (1,204 pass yds, 7.5 YPA, 10 TD, 3 INT) for the season, Florida will be sticking with sophomore QB Treon Harris under center. Harris played pretty well in a tough LSU venue last week with 271 passing yards on 17-of-32 throwing with 2 TD and 0 INT. But one Gators player that has to improve is RB Kelvin Taylor (463 rush yds, 3.6 YPC, 8 TD) who has rushed for a meager 3.0 YPC in the past three games.
The Florida defense has been nasty all season in limiting opponents to 17.3 PPG and 314 total YPG. Being on the field for only 27:22 certainly helps, as does holding teams to 118 rushing YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Gators have always had playmakers on defense and this season's squad is no exception with 14 takeaways in seven games.
