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Frigid Temperatures Likely to Impact 49ers-Packers Spread, Total Betting

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Dec/04/2010
49ers-Packers Spread

With game time temperatures expected to feel like 13 degrees throughout the approximate 3 hours of play, the 49ers-Packers spread has noticeably been affected, as is evidenced by the 4 different lines Gambling911.com has observed as of Saturday morning.   BetUS.com offered a line of Green Bay -8.5, and it was suggested to lock that number in fast since we didn’t see it lasting much longer.  In general, the odds haven’t shifted all that much since opening at -9.5, however, in addition to the -8.5 line, we are also seeing a few -10’s. 

The 49ers have reacted by signing veteran cold-weather kicker Jeff Reed for Sunday's 12 pm Central Time game at Green Bay.

The total opened at 41.5 and has dropped to 40.5 at only a handful of online sportsbooks.  Most books across the board were holding at 40.  Subfreezing temperatures often affect one’s ability to properly handle the football (hence, less catches are possible). 

70 percent of those betting the spread were backing the Packers.  Virtually nobody was on the 49ers money line.  85 percent were on the OVER.

Important betting trends to consider coming into the 49ers-Packers game included:

The Packers beat San Francisco by 6 points at home last season.  The temperatures then were in the 50’s however.

The 49ers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.  The Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

The 49ers are 10-4-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  The Packers are 18-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

A critical stat:  The 49ers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday Night Football game.  (edge: Packers)

San Francisco is just 2-6 ATS on grass.

The 49ers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 13.  The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 December games, but are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played during Week 13.   

San Francisco is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a Straight Up win and 5-20 ATS following a Straight Up win of more than 40 points.   The Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a Straight Up loss.  (edge: Packers)

The UNDER has gone 1-7 for San Francisco in December games during the last 3 seasons.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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