Dak Prescott and the Rookie Super Bowl Curse: Cowboys 9-2 Odds of Winning

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The Dallas Cowboys red hot rookie quarterback Dak Prescott is hoping to break a long standing Super Bowl curse.  No rookie quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl in 50 years.

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Bill Barnwell of ESPN notes that there simply haven’t been a whole lot of rookies or even quarterbacks with just two seasons under their belt that have started in a Super Bowl.

From ESPN.com:

For every year of players with a given level of experience, I figured out how many quarterback seasons it took to typically get a passer to the Super Bowl. There have been 152 qualifying second-year seasons since 1970 -- that would be someone like Mariota this season -- and six of those guys have made it to the Super Bowl, most recently Russell Wilson in 2013. That's a rate of just under 4 percent, or one Super Bowl appearance for every 25.3 seasons.

Barnwell adds that the quarterbacks who are playing in their mid-to-late 30s are generally extremely good and more likely to make a Super Bowl than a typical rookie.

Barnwell provided an example involving former Dolphins quarterback Don Marino:

Dan Marino (1983 Dolphins, 123 AY/A+) took over the starting job for good in Week 5 and threw 20 touchdowns against six picks during a standout rookie campaign. He was then in line for a rosy playoff matchup against the Seahawks and their lousy pass defense, but he struggled. Marino threw in two picks, and the Dolphins blew a 20-17 fourth-quarter lead to lose. Marino didn't blow the lead; after the Seahawks kicked a field goal to tie the game, Miami fumbled the ensuing kickoff to give the ball back to Seattle for the game-winning touchdown.

Barnwell points out that Dak Prescott is unlike any other rookie starting quarterback so this indeed could be the year of the rookie.

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