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The Bengals vs. Patriots current line opened with New England as a slight favorite at -2 but throughout much of the week, the Bengals were a -1 road favorite. By Sunday morning, the line on this game had moved all the way to Bengals -3.
“Much of this has to do with the press feeding frenzy regarding New England’s premature downfall,” suggests Don Shapiro of Gambling911.com. “Don’t believe the hype.”
This appears to be a reaction based on perception that might not be entirely accurate following the Chiefs beat down of New England last week. It also has something to do with a well rested Cincinnati team facing off against a Patriots squad that is playing with only six days rest.
Let’s check out some of the fantasy matchups for the Bengals-Patriots game and see if we can get a better handle on how this one might turn out.
We’ll start with New England starting quarterback Tom Brady. His 31.8 percent completion rate on throws more than 10 yards is the lowest in the NFL this season. The offensive line and receiving corp is subpar so far and this can't factor in well against a Bengals defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs (10.7 per week).
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Bengals running back Giovani Bernard will be a hot prospect entering this game. Bernard has amassed at least 100 total yards or multiple scores in Cincinnati's first three games of the season. Despite a lackluster performance against the Titans in Week 3, Bernard had twice as many carries as Bengals rookie Jeremy Hill.
Cincy's defense has allowed some big runs (5.1 yards per carry, 29th in NFL), but Patriots running back Stevan Ridley might not be the one to exploit this situation. He only touched the ball five times Monday night.
Likewise, Shane Verseen is off to a slow start this season, averaging a pedestrian 6.6 yards per reception. He is facing a Bengals team that has allowed an NFL-best 5.1 yards.
The Bengals AJ Green is your man when it comes to wide receivers. Green has topped 100 yards in each of the two games he played in this season.
Julian Edelman should have some luck for New England Sunday evening as he’ll be going up against a Cincy team allowing 170-plus yards to opposing WRs in two of three games this season. He’s considered the most trusted wide receiver on the Pats roster.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski currently leads the NFL in highest percentage of targets per passing route (41 percent).
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
