Comparables Tell Us 49ers Should Cover vs. Eagles Sunday
BetUS host TJ Rives, and expert handicappers Brad Thomas and Chris Farley analyze the NFL game San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles. They'll go over the latest football betting trends, and best value NFL odds available and share their football expert picks and predictions for this NFL Conference Championship game.
Here at Gambling911.com we analyze the number on this game and compare with season trends. We have already determined that the Bengals-Chiefs game is too difficult to offer any type of honest assessment.
For one, the line has been shifting back and fourth between the Bengals being favored to the Chiefs as the favorites courtesy of Patrick Mahomes injured ankle.
He's confirmed to start courtesy of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, but how good his performance will be remains a mystery.
"He's moving around [well],'' Reid said. "He can go out and play.''
The Bengals have already beaten KC three straight times in the course of two seasons.
As for the 49ers-Eagles game, this is a classic 2.5/3 line without crossing over the 3.
Not only is there an overlay detected with the Eagles the -2.5 favorite, we have San Francisco at -0.5, meaning the wrong team is favored here. That's a 3-point overlay.
In our season sampling of NFL games within this range where there is an overlay, no true edge was detected. Likewise, the wrong team favored had no edge either (2-2 in our sampling).
Looking to college football, overlays significantly favored the dog (15-4 Against The Spread). The wrong team favored as well (4-12 ATS).
That alone could be a strong enough argument to back San Francisco here.
We wanted to check out some comparables both in the NFL and college football.
While this one has hit the three, the books we monitor have mostly kept the number at 2.5.
Road Favorite On The Money
Buffalo -2.5 LA Rams (road favorite Buffalo covers with big win) Buffalo 2.21 On the Money.
TCU -2.5 Baylor (home dog Baylor covers with TCU one point win). TCU 2.29 On the Money
USC -2.5 UCLA (road favorite covers with 3 point win) USC 3.02 On the Money
Road Dog On The Money
Indianapolis +2.5 Tennessee (home favorite Tenn covers and wins by 9 points) Tenn 2.01 On the Money
Pittsburgh +2.5 Indianapolis (road dog Pitt covers) Indy 2.73 On the Money
New England +2.5 Minnesota (home favorite Minn covers) Minn 1.88 On the Money
Pittsburgh +2.5 Indianapolis (road dog Pitt covers and wins) Indy 2.73 On the Money
Oklahoma State +2.5 Baylor (road dog Oklahoma State covers and wins by a lot) Baylor 3.3 On the Money
Road Favorite Overlay
Buffalo -2.5 Kansas City (road favorite Buffalo covers with 4-point win) Buffalo 0.1 Overlay 1.5 to 2.5.
Mississippi State -2.5 LSU (Dog LSU Covers wins big) LSU 4.96 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay 7
North Dakota State -2.5 Arizona (Dog Arizona Covers and Wins by 3) Arizona 1.15 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 3.5
Mississippi State -2.5 LSU (Dog LSU Covers wins big) LSU 4.96 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay 7
Miami -2.5 Virginia ( home dog Virginia covers with Miami winning by just two points) Miami 0.65 Overlay of 2 points
Texas -2.5 KSU (favorite Texas covers and wins by 7) KSU 0.49 Wrong Team Favored Overlay of 3
Oklahoma -2.5 TTU (home dog Texas Tech covers and wins in overtime) OK 1.48 Overlay of 1
Road Favorite Underlay
Coastal Carolina -2.5 Georgia State (favorite Coastal Carolina covers and wins by a lot) Coastal Carolina 6.00 Underlay 3.5 points
Road Dog Underlay
Boston College +2.5 Virginia Tech (favorite Virginia Tech wins by double digits) 7.48 Underlay of 5
North Texas +2.5 UNLV (Favorite UNLV covers and wins big) 15.56 - Underlay Massive 13.5
Road Dog Overlay
Vanderbilt +2.5 Northern Illinois (dog Van covers and wins by 10) - Vanderbilt 1.26 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 4
Baylor +2.5 Iowa State (dog Baylor wins outright) Baylor 1.58 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay 4 points
San Jose State -2.5 SDSU (home dog SDSU covers and wins by a lot) San Jose State 1.45 Overlay 1 point
Iowa +2.5 Minn (road dog Iowa covers and wins) Iowa 0.31 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 3
Mississippi State +2.5 Ole Miss (road dog Miss State wins outright) Ole Miss 0.82 Overlay of 1.5
Road Dog Wrong Team Favored
Vanderbilt +2.5 Northern Illinois (dog Van covers and wins by 10) - Vanderbilt 1.26 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 4
Baylor +2.5 Iowa State (dog Baylor wins outright) Baylor 1.58 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay 4 points
North Dakota State -2.5 Arizona (Dog Arizona Covers and Wins by 3) Arizona 1.15 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 3.5
Mississippi State -2.5 LSU (Dog LSU Covers wins big) LSU 4.96 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay 7
Texas -2.5 KSU (favorite Texas covers and wins by 7) KSU 0.49 Wrong Team Favored Overlay of 3
Iowa +2.5 Minn (road dog Iowa covers and wins) Iowa 0.31 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 3
Looking at the highlighted comparables, it's easy to see why we believe the 49ers are heading to the Super Bowl or, will lose by within the +2.5. We have San Francisco +2.5 here.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
