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49ers-Lions Line at Detroit -4.5

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Oct/16/2011
49ers-Lions Line

The 49ers-Lions line had moved from -5 to -4.5 in favor of Detroit though some books were now listing the Lions at -4.  Close to 70 percent of the spread betting had action on

Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Detroit -4 & 46

Opening Line & Total: Detroit -4.5 & 46.5

Two of the league’s biggest surprises square off on Sunday when 5-0 Detroit hosts 4-1 San Francisco.

In this matchup, defense will be at a premium. The Niners rank second in the NFL in scoring defense (15.6 PPG), while Detroit is tied for fourth, allowing 17.8 PPG. The 49ers trounced the Bucs 48-3 in Week 5, looking the best they have in a long time in both phases of the offense. Detroit’s disruptive defensive line and ball-hawking secondary will give San Fran much more of a challenge in this game. The Lions passing combination of QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson is emerging as one of the NFL’s best, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against a physical, playmaking 49ers’ defense. San Francisco has won many of its games in 2011 because of 14 takeaways, but Detroit has turned the ball over a league-low four times this season. Both teams are 4-0-1 ATS so far, but the Lions have been a great bet for two years now, going 16-3-2 ATS (84%), including 9-1 ATS at home since 2010 began.

The 49ers destroyed Tampa Bay, which was coming off a short week, and now Detroit has one day less to prepare after playing Monday night. San Francisco RB Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards, while QB Alex Smith threw for 170 yards and 3 TD, in leading the team to its third straight win. After rushing for just 69.7 YPG in their first three contests, the 49ers are averaging 189 rushing YPG in their past two games. But even with the offensive explosion, the team still ranks 27th in the league in total offense (300 YPG).

WR Josh Morgan (15 rec, 220 yds, 1 TD) will no longer be able to help Smith, as his season ended Wednesday when he was placed on IR with a fractured right ankle. The defense has generated three turnovers in four different games this year, and has the fifth-best run stop unit in football, allowing just 76 rushing YPG.

Detroit will be content to throw the football, but it showed last week that it can also run the ball with 181 yards on 20 carries. Even if Jahvid Bust didn’t score on an 88-yard TD scamper, the Lions still averaged 4.9 YPC on their other 19 rushing attempts. Stafford and Johnson continue to amaze. Stafford is averaging 287 passing YPG with 13 TD and 4 INT, while Johnson gained a season-high 130 yards against Chicago and scored his league-leading ninth touchdown.

On the defensive side of the ball, Detroit is fourth in the league in passing yards per attempt (5.9 YPA). The pass rush has been solid, as 10 of the team’s dozen sacks have come from the D-Line. The Lions have dropped seven straight meetings with San Francisco and only earned one ATS win over this span (1-5-1 ATS). However, six of these seven meetings occurred in San Francisco.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

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