College Football Betting Analysis - Friday October 10 South Florida vs. North Texas
Today, October 10, 2025, we take an in depth look at some of the top games on our radar in which to consider betting.
Friday October 10
South Florida vs. North Texas
We have a line of North Texas Mean Green -2.5.
There is a slight underlay here with our number coming in at 3.69.
From The Action Network:
Defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity has transformed the Mean Green’s defense. The 4-2-5 has looked elite. They lead the nation in PFF’s Tackling grades and rank eighth in PFF Coverage grades. Transfers Trey Fields (linebacker) and David Fisher (cornerback) have had massive impacts on the second and third levels.
The Mean Green are playing fast and decisive on defense. It’s a sophisticated scheme with sophisticated, veteran playmakers.
Underlays in the 2.5/3 range tend to provide favorites with an edge.
Saturday September 27 Most Wagered On Games (as of 11 am ET)
- Notre Dame @ Arkansas 12 pm
- USC @ Illinois 12 pm
- Ohio State @ Washington 3:30 pm
- Alabama @ Gerogia 7:30 pm
- LSU @ Ole Miss 3:30 pm
- Oregon @ Penn State 7:30 pm
- Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest 12 pm
- Indiana @ Iowa 3:30 pm
Notre Dame @ Arkansas -
Action was mostly balanced on this one.
The number has moved between Irish -5 and -4.
We get a number of Notre Dame -6 with what we feel could be a slightly inflated home field advantage of 5.25 at Sagarin. Using a home field advantage of 3 we get a number closer to -4, which is right on the money.
USC @ Illinois -
Action was balanced.
THe number has moved from USC -6.5 to -7.
We get a number of Illinois -1 and, even with two points removed off the home field, we'd have a significant overlay for Southern California.
The Action Network likes USC here:
I expect the Illini to play much better than they did a week ago, but I still have major questions about the defense across the board.
Just like Indiana, USC has an explosive offense that's one of the best in the Big Ten, and there are plenty of matchup advantages on the perimeter for the Trojans.
Altmyer and the Illinois offense should make their share of plays down the field, but I've got faith in the USC defense to come up with some stops when they need to get off the field.
The Trojans will score in bunches, and the Illini won't be able to keep pace.
Lincoln Riley's team is extremely focused in a pivotal year for the program, and they'll be fully ready to go for this one despite the long travel and body clock changes.
Give me USC to win and cover on the road. Fight On.http://aceperhead.com/
Our model does not see any edge.
Ohio State @ Washington -
The line has moved from Ohio State -9 to -8 despite as much as 75% of the money on the Buckeyes.
Top cappers are all over the Huskies here as well.
Alabama @ Georgia -
The line has dropped from Bulldogs -3 to -2.
While greater than 70% of the bets were on UGA, 64% of the money was actually coming in on Alabama.
We get a number of -4 Georgia (-2 without the inflated home field advantage number for this week). There is still an underlay with the former.
Our model likes Georgia with underlays in this line range going 82% for the favorite.
LSU @ Ole Miss
The Rebels started the week at -2.5 with the line dropping to -1.5. Action was balanced.
We have the wrong team favored with the Tigers -4 and -2 if we subtract the Sagarin inflated home field number.
Wrong teams favored, whether trending to the 3.5 or the 2.5, have gone 81% for the dog with our model.
Top cappers and capping sites are on Ole Miss however.
Oregon @ Penn State -
The line has moved from Penn State -3 to as high as -4 at Bovada (staying at -3.5 at BetOnline. This does suggest the oddsmakers are trying to get more action on the dog at recreational books (Oregon).
Action was mostly mixed.
From The Action Network:
The handicap of Oregon vs. Penn State comes down to whether each defense can win specific battles.
Oregon consistently wins the outside battle with Moore's passing to wideout targets. However, thanks to the coverage provided from Dixson and Joseph, the Ducks will be throwing into one of the most volatile defenses in FBS.
Expect the Nittany Lions to continue running plenty of Cover 3, which should keep Oregon from creating explosives.
Penn State holds a supreme advantage in the running game. Oregon has struggled to contain outside zone read against Oregon State, Northwestern and Oklahoma State.
The Nittany Lions have dominated with outside zone, averaging a 66% Success Rate against opposing defenses.
Look for Allen and Singleton to take over the Penn State offense against an Oregon defensive line that has failed against subpar competition.
From Winners and Whiners:
Two great teams square off at Beaver Stadium on Saturday night. The key to the game will be Penn State’s ability to shut down the highly potent Ducks’ offense. The best way to attack the Ducks and limit their scoring will be to control the football. This will be a game that should feature a run-heavy attack from the Nittany Lions. The team is ranked 29th in the country in rushing offense and has arguably the best running back combo in the country this season in Allen and Singleton. Penn State does two things extremely well: protect the football and limit penalties. That should set the team up for long drives. The Nittany Lions are third in the country in turnover margin and fourth in fewest penalties per game. The Ducks won’t be stopped, but can be had if the Nittany Lions can limit their opportunities. The Nittany Lions can control the tempo, pound the ball on the ground, and limit the Ducks in the red zone. Penn State is second in the country in red zone defense. They’ll deliver at home on Saturday with a week to prepare for Oregon.
Cappers were almost unanimously on the Nittany Lions to cover here.
Our number comes in at Penn State -3, which is right on the money. No edge found here with our model.
Five Tips for Using Football Betting Software
College football. It can be a great sport to watch if you are a die-hard football fan looking to fill the gap between the start of the weekend and pro football on Sundays. For the bookie or agent, it is critical to understand the next generation of bettors and how they think when it comes to betting football.
- Look for Home Underdogs - Because, bettors tend to like to back a favorite, especially small favorites on the road. Sportsbooks know this and it can leave an opportunity for a sharp bettor to make a profit on an underrated underdog.
- Non Power Teams - In college football, some of the best conferences in Division I are referred to as the “Power 5.” These conferences include the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC, and Pac-12. So, that means that the teams in these conferences are usually regarded as more popular and better than most teams from the other conferences.
- Team Trends - Something else that you should pay attention to is how good certain teams are in certain situations. This may not always benefit you because it is hard to be perfect when it comes to betting, but it can give you a much better idea of what to expect andbetting ideasthat you would not normally think of. For example, Tulsa in college football was one of the most underrated programs in the country a few seasons ago, but for bettors, they are a money machine if you ride with them.
- Live Betting - Another option that you have for betting sports is to place live bets on a game. Arguably, you could be opening up Pandora’s Box here if you do not know what you are doing because there are a lot more betting options that you have with this option than doing everything before a game.
- Fade Ranked Teams - Finally, as mentioned above, something to pay attention to in college football is the matchups that ranked teams play. The public tends to like to back the ranked teams because they view them as favorites and better than everybody else. But, a sharp bettor may be looking for the more under-the-radar bet, and that usually involves either a lower-ranked team or a non-ranked team. To do this, you need to pay attention to a ranked team’s schedule and trends very carefully to figure out a weak spot in the schedule.
College Football Betting Analysis Florida State vs. Virginia (September 26)
FSU was seeing greater than 75 percent of the spread action with the number having come down off the 7.5 to 7.
We have Virginia as the team that should be favored here or at least a PICK'EM. This line is way overinflated.
Our model does not give any edge to overlays in the 7/7.5 range.
From The Action Network:
The most significant metric that stuck out to me was that the Noles are 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives, whereas Virginia's defense has struggled mightily in that area.
The Noles are 18th in Havoc Allowed, so their offensive line has done a solid job thus far. The numbers are flawed based on their soft schedule in recent weeks, but the critical data point is the Alabama matchup from Week 1.
They've also been outstanding defensively. The Noles are in the top 25 in several defensive categories, including EPA/Pass and Rush Allowed per game.
They're also 18th in Defensive Havoc, but they'll be tested against a decent Virginia offensive line. I'd usually lean toward laying it with the Noles on the road, given that they've proven enough against Alabama. But their offense won't be the same, given Castellanos's uncertainty.
From Winners and Whiners:
Florida State looks well-positioned to cover the -7 spread thanks to their balance on both sides of the ball. The Seminoles enter this matchup having dominated weaker opponents, showing not just offensive firepower but also defensive consistency. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has been the centerpiece, combining efficient passing with mobility that keeps defenses on edge. His dual-threat ability complements a rushing attack that has been nearly unstoppable, and if FSU establishes that ground game early, they can wear down Virginia’s front seven. Add in the fact that Florida State’s offensive line has provided stability and time for play development, and the Seminoles should be able to create sustained scoring drives while keeping pressure off their quarterback.
Defensively, Florida State has shown an ability to limit explosive plays, holding opponents to minimal points through their first few contests. Against Virginia, who thrives on rhythm and finding mismatches, FSU’s discipline in coverage and physicality in the trenches will be critical. The Cavaliers may hang tough early, especially at home, but if FSU forces them into long-yardage situations and generates turnovers, it’s difficult to see Virginia keeping pace. Florida State’s edge in both talent and depth should allow them to separate as the game progresses, making the -7 spread a reasonable and confident play heading into Friday night.
Pretty much every top capper we follow is backing Florida State here.
A tell tale sign here is that the recreational book Bovada brought this line down to Seminoles -6.5.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (62-54-2)
October 10 - No Picks
October 9 - No Picks
October 8 - No Picks
Ocotober 7 - New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays +149 (LOSS)
October 6 - No Picks
October 5 - Tennessee Titans vs. Arizona Cardinals - Titans +7.5 (WIN)
October 5 - Washington Commanders vs. LA Chargers - Chargers -2.5 (LOSS)
October 4 - No Picks
October 3 - No Picks
October 2 - No Picks
October 1 - No Picks
September 30 - No Picks
September 29 - No Picks
September 28 - LA Chargers vs. New York Giants - Giants +6.5 (WIN)
September 27 - Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Washington Huskies - Washington +8 (LOSS)
September 26 - Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers - Virginia +7 (WIN)
September 25 - No Picks
September 24 - Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -145 (WIN)
September 23 - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -168 (LOSS)
September 22 - Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens - Lions +4.5 (WIN)
September 21 - Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns - Browns +7.5 (WIN)
September 21 - Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders - Commanders -3 (WIN)
September 21 - LA Rams vs. Philadlphia Eagles - Eagles -3 (WIN)
September 21 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers - Panthers +4.5 (WIN)
September 20 - Maryland Terrapins +10 Wisconsin Badgers - Wisconsin -10 (LOSS)
September 20 - Florida Gators +7.5 Miami - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 20 - SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs - TCU -7 (WIN)
September 19 - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Rutgers Scarlett Knights - Rutgers +2.5 (LOSS)
September 18 - Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills - Bills -11.5 (LOSS)
September 17 - NO PICKS
September 16 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers - Guardians +122 (WIN)
September 15 - Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
September 15 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings - Falcons +3.5 (LOSS)
September 15 - Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets - Jets +6.5 (LOSS)
September 14 - Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers -3 ()
September 13 - Texas A&M Aggies vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Notre Dame -6.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Georgia Tech +3 (WIN)
September 12 - Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 9 (WIN)
September 11 - Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers - Commanders +3.5 (LOSS)
September 10 - No Picks Today
September 9 - Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 8 - Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics - Red Sox -160 (WIN)
September 8 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers - Brewers (LOSS)
September 7 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets - Steelers -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Illinois vs. Duke - Duke -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs - SMU -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State - NC State -2.5 (WIN)
September 5 - Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers - Chiefs -3 (LOSS)
September 4 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays -160 (WIN)
September 3 - Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 2 - Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Athletics -107 (LOSS)
September 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 - Dodgers -165 (LOSS)
September 1 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 9 (LOSS)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 (LOSS)
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
