The 2025 NCAAF Championship Odds: Who’s In, Who’s Out, and Who’s Surging?
The 2025 college football season brings a loaded schedule right out of the gate. Week 1 kicks off on Saturday, August 30, with headliners like Texas visiting Ohio State in Columbus and Georgia meeting Clemson in Atlanta. These early showdowns carry real playoff weight and could shape the top of the rankings before Labor Day.
Here’s a breakdown of who’s in, who’s out, and who’s surging ahead of kickoff.
Who’s In?
Texas headlines the 2025 championship contenders. Texas opens the Arch Manning era coming off a 13–3 season and a trip to the College Football Playoff. In fact, Texas is likely to open the year ranked No. 1 in the preseason polls and carry the odds to win the Championship. Coach Steve Sarkisian’s squad returns a wealth of talent around its star sophomore quarterback.
Meanwhile, Georgia remains firmly in the title mix. The Bulldogs reloaded after an 11-win campaign. Quarterback Gunner Stockton takes over with help from a strong run game and a new go-to target in USC transfer Zachariah Branch. With a healthy QB and fortified offense, Georgia is expected to be right there in the mix atop the SEC and chasing another championship this season.
The usual powerhouses aren’t far behind. Defending champion Ohio State must replace an exodus of NFL-bound stars and coaches, but the Buckeyes’ cupboard is far from bare. Ryan Day’s team still boasts elite playmakers, including arguably the nation’s best receiving corps led by game-breaking wideout Jeremiah Smith. That makes Ohio State a solid bet to be back in the playoff.
Alabama also projects as a major contender despite a rare 9–4 hiccup last year. In Year 2 of the post-Saban era, coach Kalen DeBoer has the Crimson Tide back in the national title conversation with former five-star Ty Simpson stepping in at quarterback and a roster loaded with blue-chip talent on both sides of the ball.
Who’s Out?
Michigan exemplifies how quickly fortunes can fade. The Wolverines went 15–0 in 2023 but fell to 8–5 last season and finished unranked, a shocking drop for a preseason top-10 team. An anemic offense was Michigan’s undoing. They averaged only 129 passing yards per game, dead last in the FBS outside of option-based service academies.
Florida State’s resurgence also proved short-lived. The Seminoles entered last year ranked No. 10 but endured a complete program breakdown in 2024, plummeting to a losing record. Coach Mike Norvell responded by overhauling his staff and mining the transfer portal to stop the bleeding. For now, this once-powerful program isn’t expected to challenge anything big in 2025.
Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans have seen their buzz cool off after a disappointing 2024. With Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams gone, USC faces tempered expectations and a roster in transition. The Trojans are slotted just 21st on ESPN’s preseason contender list, a far cry from the hype that surrounded them just two years ago.
Oklahoma is also stuck in a rebuild. The Sooners had their best defense in over a decade, but paired it with one of the worst offenses since the 1990s. New coordinator Ben Arbuckle and transfer quarterback John Mateer were brought in to fix things, but with a brutal schedule ahead, the pressure is already on. It’s no surprise the Sooners are ranked only 23rd among playoff contenders.
Who’s Surging?
If 2024 taught us anything, it’s that new contenders can emerge in a hurry. One program gathering serious momentum now is Miami. The Hurricanes made perhaps the offseason’s biggest splash by luring veteran quarterback Carson Beck from Georgia, a move that took college football by surprise and instantly gave Miami a proven leader under center.
That high-profile transfer positions the U as a viable ACC frontrunner and playoff dark horse. Miami was one win away from the CFP last year. With Beck joining a roster full of returning talent, this team is poised to capitalize on its momentum. An improved defense and power running game will complement Beck’s steady hand at QB, making Miami as one of the trendy picks in NCAAF Season Betting Guides.
Elsewhere, Texas A&M is quietly building a case to reenter the conversation. After years of underachievement, the Aggies made a clean break by hiring Mike Elko. His arrival brings structure and urgency to a roster ranked seventh nationally in returning production. This is one of the most experienced lineups in the country, and it gives A&M a shot at real improvement right away.
Sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed returned to lead the offense, and the Aggies brought in several key receivers through the portal. With more explosive options and better chemistry, A&M has the tools to turn the corner. Elko’s no-nonsense coaching style may be exactly what the program needs to finally compete in the SEC and shed its reputation as a perennial underachiever.
Early Gaps, Rising Threats, and Familiar Faces in the 2025 Chase
A lot can change between August and January, but the early outlook gives fans a clear sense of where the momentum is heading. Programs like Texas, Georgia, and Ohio State are locked in and aiming for another deep run. Others, like Michigan, USC, and Clemson, face an uphill climb just to stay in the conversation. At the same time, surging teams like Miami, A&M, and Louisville are proving they belong.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
