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The line on the LSU vs. Texas A&M game had dropped from Aggies -3 to -1. The move makes sense being that ticket and cash bets were on the Tigers at a 70% clip each.
We also have a situation where the wrong team is favored. Sagarin has LSU better than the Aggies by a half a point.
Our model gives the dog a solid (83%) edge when the wrong team is favored. That would be the Tigers.
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Winners and Whiners offered this analysis of the game:
"For me, this game comes down to the coaches and the quarterbacks.
"I respect what Elko has accomplished in his first season and his track record suggests future success in Aggieland, but Kelly has a proven track record in these games. Bettors have cashed in nicely when backing Brian Kelly-coached teams as road underdogs, as he has compiled a 23-11 (68%) ATS record in that spot.
"I also trust Nussmeier much more than Weigman, who didn't look up to par in his last start (15-for-25 passing with two INTs) against a Mississippi State defense ranked 126th nationally in EPA/Pass Allowed. He didn't come through (12-for-30 passing for 100 yards and two INTs) in A&M's important clash versus Notre Dame, either. Nussmeier has been excellent this season, coming up big against Ole Miss and leading a Tigers passing attack ranked fifth in the nation in Passing Success Rate.
"The Aggies' run defense is stout, but they have been vulnerable against the pass. With the spread down from 3.5 to 2.5, I see more value in betting on the Tigers to win straight-up against the Aggies."
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