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Not the most riveting game but it's being played on Friday night so will attract a decent amount of wagering action. We're talking the Georgia State vs. UConn college football game.
Line Analysis and Action
- Opening Line - Connecticut opened as the -7 home favorite.
- Line Trend - This one has bounced between the 7 and 7.5 with a few brief 8's.
- Sagarin Number - We get 9.41, indicating an underlay by two points.
- Action - UConn is seeing better than 70%.
Historic Comparables
Colorado +7 to +7.5 Colorado State (Colorado 9.39 Underlay) - Dog covers. 2023 game.
Arizona +7 to +7.5 Kansas State (Kansas State 12.91 Big Underlay) - Favorite covers. 2023 game.
Cincinnati +7 to +7.5 Oklahoma State (Oklahoma State 17.17 Underlay 10) - Favorite covers.
Penn State +7.5 to +7 Michigan (home favorite Michigan covers and wins big) Mich 11.49 - 4 to 4.5 Underlay. Favorite covers.
Oklahoma State +7.5 to +7 Oklahoma State (home favorite Oklahoma State covers and wins big) Oklahoma 5.48 Underlay 1.5 to 2 points . Favorite covers, though the trend was more 7.5 to 7 as opposed to the above comparables and today's game line movement of 7 to 7.5.
Winners and Whiners Prediction
"UConn has a chance to earn a bowl spot with a win at home on Friday night. The Huskies close the season with three straight road games, two of which look daunting. Expect to see a more determined Huskies team than the one that showed up last week against Rice. Quarterback Evers had an off-day, just one week after lighting up the Wake Forest defense the week before in a thrilling 23-20 loss. Evers will look much improved against a Georgia State defense that is just 106th in the country in scoring defense and 116th in total defense. The Huskies will loosen up the Panthers first with a ground game that ranks 64th in the nation against Georgia State's 119th-ranked rush defense. Evers will then be able to utilize the play-action pass and push the ball down the field against this vulnerable defense. He won't have to worry about the pass rush, with the Panthers ranked 123rd in the country in sacks per game. Defensively, UConn has been outstanding this season. They are 27th in scoring defense and 29th in total defense. They are particularly tough against the pass, ranked 29th in the country against the pass. That should slow down the Panthers' passing attack which ranks 44th in the country. Another advantage that should help the Huskies cover the number is in the red zone. Georgia State is just 115th in the country in red zone efficiency while the Huskies' red zone defense is ranked 17th in the nation. UConn will roll and earn a bowl spot with a win on Friday night."
Take UConn -7.5
Prediction: UConn -7.5 (courtesy of Winners and Whiners)
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