Dillon Gabriel Total Passing Yards Prop Bet vs. Ohio State - Rose Bowl

The nation's No. 1 team, Oregon, has been faultless for the whole of the regular season.

Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel is well within striking distance of Case Keenum's record mark for passing yards in a single career.

For the Rose Bowl game, Gabriel's passing yard total comes in at 254.5 at BetUS.

Keenum finished his college career with 19,217 yards over the course of five seasons with the Cougars.  So far, Gabriel has 18,423 yards during his college career playing at UCF, Oklahoma and now Oregon.

Gabriel joined Dan Lanning's Ducks squad for the 2024 season. He's since emerged as one of college football's most efficient performers, posting a nation-best 73.2 percent completion rate for the unbeaten Ducks.  He's currently the NCAA record holder for career starts and touchdowns.

He's also managed to follow terrifically talented predecessors, both in high school and in college.

“I’m a damn good picker,” Gabriel said. “I have chosen and I take pride in this because I protect the pick. Who you pick to be around. Who you pick to do life with.

“Imagine if I followed some quarterback that wasn’t good,” he added. “Who wants to go to a school that — people go to schools because a quarterback played damn good there. And it’s not about following anyone there, even though (Milton) is probably the closest one to following. But everyone else it’s like, dude, it’s going to be someone else’s turn after me. And it’ll be someone else’s turn after that person. It’s the nature of the game. Who wouldn’t want to go play at the highest stage where quarterbacks have played really well?”

Former coaches and quarterback teammates remark that Gabriel, 24, has the “it factor,” a confidence and a presentation that resonates from the Pacific Islands to across the mainland.

“I’m built for this s---,” Gabriel said. “I think about all these places I’ve been and even when I was younger, when you’ve played as much football as I have, the experiences you have, you find out real quick what’s real, what’s not, what’s fulfilling, what’s not. That’s allowed me to be myself and authentic in these environments.

“Then I choose the right people because of it. That’s why it’s been that way. I’ve won, 10-plus win seasons at three different spots. I don’t look back on it like I’m proud of that; it’s more it’s a direct representation that I’ve trusted my heart.”

Oregon will be a rare +2.5 dog in this game.  The line has trended towards +2. Action was relatively balanced but leaning more towards the Ducks 55% to 60% most books.

Sagarin gives us a number of Buckeyes 1.19, indicating a slight overlay.

Overlays in this 2.5 to 2 range in college football have performed well on average for the underdog.

Comparables

*Overlays in the 1 to 2 margin range with a line that moves from 2.5 to 2 in college football.

*Overlays in the 1 to 2 margin range with spread of 2.5 in college football.

• Clemson +2.5 SMU (SMU -1.25) Slight Overlay) 65% of action on SMU. - Dog covers.
• South Carolina +2.5/+3 Clemson (Clemson 1.77 On The Money to an Overlay) - Dog covers.
• Alabama -3/-2.5 LSU (Alabama 1.63 Overlay) - Balanced Action. - Favorite covers.
• Texas A&M -3/2.5 South Carolina (Balanced Action) (Texas A&M 1.94 slight overlay). - Dog covers.
• TCU -2.5 SMU (SMU 1 Overlay) - Dog covers.
• Duke +2.5 Northwestern (Northwestern 0.81 Overlay) - Dog covers.
• Miami -2.5 Virginia ( home dog Virginia covers with Miami winning by just two points) Miami 0.65 Overlay of 2 points - Dog covers.

Winners and Whiners Prediction

Winners and Whiners likes Oregon here.

"The pendulum has swung back to Ohio State after the team was vilified for losing to Michigan at home to close the season. A one-sided win over an offensively challenged Tennessee Volunteers team has done that for the Buckeyes. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, the Oregon Ducks' offense is vastly superior to the Vols. Oregon comes in with the nation's sixth-best scoring offense and 12th-best red zone offense. The Buckeyes dominated the Vols a few weeks ago, particularly against the pass. In the first matchup between these two teams, Oregon dominated the game through the air, finishing with 341 yards passing without a turnover.

"The Ducks even outgained the Buckeyes on the ground, 155 yards to 141. On the season the Ducks have failed to score at least 24 points just one time this season, a 16-13 win over Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have scored 21 points or less in three of their last six games in the regular season. While the Buckeyes are renowned for their defense, Oregon isn't far behind with the nation's 9th-ranked defense. They'll have to improve from their effort against Penn State against the rush. The first game was decided in the closing minutes and the Ducks snuck out a one-point win at home. The rematch looks to be similar. The Ducks are the fastest offense the Buckeyes have seen all season and the Buckeyes are the best defense the Ducks have faced all year. The difference between these two teams could be field goal kicking. The Ducks come in ranked 32nd in the nation in field goal accuracy while the Buckeyes are just 97th in the nation. In a one score game, that could make all the difference."

Our Pick

Oregon +2.5