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Mississippi State faces off against their in-state rival Saturday, hosting Ole Miss as a -5.5 favorite.
The line on this game had moved from Bulldogs -4.5 (very early opening line) all the way up to -6.5.
Malik Dia is coming off a game in which he scored 23 points in Ole Miss' 74-64 win against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Bulldogs are 7-1 in home games. Mississippi State has a 1-0 record in games decided by less than 4 points.
The Rebels are 4-0 in conference matchups. Ole Miss averages 78.7 points and has outscored opponents by 14.1 points per game.
Mississippi State averages 8.6 made 3-pointers per game, 1.5 more made shots than the 7.1 per game Ole Miss gives up. Ole Miss has shot at a 45.0% clip from the field this season, 2.5 percentage points above the 42.5% shooting opponents of Mississippi State have averaged.
The Bulldogs and Rebels meet Saturday for the first time in conference play this season.
Top performers include KeShawn Murphy. He is averaging 9.9 points and 7.5 rebounds for the Bulldogs.
Sean Pedulla is scoring 13.9 points per game and averaging 3.4 rebounds for the Rebels.
Top Capper Predictions
Both teams are off to strong starts though Mississippi State has struggled a bit in conference play. Of course, losses to Kentucky at home and Auburn on the road aren’t bad losses though they are trying to get back on track. Ole Miss is unbeaten in conference play on the year and they are stingy on the defensive end of the floor. The Rebels are coming in off a win over Alabama on the road so one has to hope that they don’t suffer a letdown here. Mississippi State is 7-1 at home with their lone loss to Kentucky. While Ole Miss has one road loss in four games, they fell by 17 at Memphis. In a bitter rivalry matchup, look for Mississippi State to claw out a win here as they feed off the home crowd.
Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5
Mississippi State is a guard-friendly, ball-screen-centric offense behind Josh Hubbard, Claudell Harris Jr. and Riley Kugel.
The Rebels are a rim-friendly offense, but they have no issues pulling up over the top, and they’re due for all sorts of positive shooting regression after canning only 15 of their 64 (23%) 3-point attempts over the past two games.
Considering those two games were losses, the Bulldogs should come out with their hair on fire.
Considering it’s also a home game against their undefeated in-state rival, the Bulldogs should put together their best performance of the season. And considering they’re due for a monster amount of positive 3-point shooting regression, they should score a ton in the process.
Mississippi State is way overdue for a win, and Hubbard should lead it to one on Saturday.
Pick: Mississippi State
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