US Recession Odds: From 5-1 to Now Nearly Even

The U.S. economy presents a conundrum for Federal Reserve policymakers, defined by a stark dichotomy: a slowdown in hiring and job growth contrasts with sustained strength in productivity and GDP. 

This tension between a softening labor market and an expanding overall economy complicates the Fed's mandate, leaving it uncertain whether to apply stimulus or accept recession. 

BetOnline.ag has been taking wagers on whether or not the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will announce that a recession has occurred in the U.S. before the end of 2026.

A month ago, the odds for an announced U.S. recession were 5/1. Today, the numbers look much differently. 

Will a U.S. recession be announced before 2027?

Yes 1/1 (+100)

No 5/7 (-140)

While the odds still favor no recession (~58% implied probability) in 2026, they are much shorter than they were earlier this year and the current odds basically indicate an old-fashioned "tossup." These numbers will certainly be worth keeping an eye on.

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