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$24,064,736 in trading volume for the price of Brent Crude Oil was observed at the prediction market Polymarket for the month of May.
Before there was a war in Iran, little interest was paid to the price of oil. During the entire month of January, just $134,264 was traded at Polymarket.
The price of oil likely won't be dropping in June, according to the prediction markets.
$115 to $120 was seeing between a 40% and 50% chance.
Iran has mostly blocked ships from safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz. A secondary blockade by the US near the Gulf of Oman has also disrupted oil shipments.
The price of Brent Crude Oil to close out the day Thursday came in just shy of $90.
Iran’s ISNA news agency says mediated discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing, with the two sides exchanging messages and draft texts in an effort to establish a formal framework for an agreement to end the conflict.
Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tehran reports that Pakistani officials are engaged in “intense mediation activity”, while a senior Iranian official said a deal was close, though a second Iranian source said it was too early to say whether a final agreement could be reached.
How This Market Will Be Settled
At Polymarket, this market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
