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The prediction markets are offering contracts for what the national average price of gas will be by month's end.
Polymarket traders are backing the price of gas above $5.00 by month's end at just 14%, but with close to $30,000 in volume. This is the most liquidity, followed by the over $4.50 seeing 34$ on the Yes and nearly half the population believing that prices will be over $4.25 by month's end.
Fuel prices continue to increase across the U.S. amid the war in the Middle East. Today, March 12, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas is $3.60, compared to $3.48, three days ago on March 9, and $2.94 a month ago, according to AAA price data.
Resolution of Market at Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
