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Kalshi now has a betting market on when Tesla will launch an unsupervised FSD, otherwise known as “unsupervised full self-driving.
With over $2 million in volume so far, 46% percent believe this will occur before February 2026 while three quarters say it will happen prior to March of 2026.
The Rules Summary at Kalshi was as follows:
If Tesla launches unsupervised full self-driving in their cars (including in a robotaxi service) before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from Elon Musk, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
Clarification (7/3/25 at 3:15am ET): For this contract to resolve YES, all of the following must hold: (1) Tesla must describe the service as unsupervised full self-driving. Any service that Tesla/Elon Musk describes as requiring supervision will not qualify. (2) The vehicle must not have an individual in the driver’s seat expected to supervise or intervene with the vehicle’s operation. (3) The Tesla(s) must be operating in a mode where no human is expected or required to monitor the driving performance, and the vehicle must not mandate a licensed driver to be present. This means that launches where Tesla has Safety Monitors in place are excluded. (4) The FSD capability must be released to the public. This means that publicity stunts, invitation-only programs, or programs that are not available for commercial release are all excluded.
- Aaron Golldstein, Gambling911.com
