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As business and political moguls hobnob at the five-day Davos junket we will measure whether many of those who presided over blunders in business and policy can credibly lead us in 'Shaping the Post-Crisis World' - the theme for the meeting.
To measure the immediate impact of dozens of presentations and workshops by 2,500 business and 42 political leaders we have constructed the Intrade World Crisis Index.
Our admittedly unsophisticated sentiment index priced at 50.0 at the official opening of the meeting is comprised of eight equally weighted markets that measure the likelihood of recessions, depressions, increased unemployment, lower stock markets, and greater international tensions.
A higher post meeting index means our markets predict a more disastrous 2009 than before. A lower post-meeting index means our markets predict global leaders have reduced the probability that 2009 will be the disaster we previously thought.
We hope the global leaders convince our traders that 2009 will not be as bad as previously thought. We hope to see the index react to the keynote addresses.
You can see the updated World Crisis Index at Intrade
The 8 "World Crisis" Markets
Level
Germany Recession in 09
92.0
Japan Recession in 09
88.5
US -10% Depression in 09
20.0
Russian Debt Default in 09
39.0
China Growth Below 7.5% Q4 08
62.0
Unemployment in the US above 9% Q4 09
44.5
New Dow low in 09 from Nov 08 low.
62.7
Airstrike against Iran by US and/or Israel by end 09
23.7
Total (divided by 8.648 to get 50.0)
432.4
Index Value as at 2:00pm GMT, 28 Jan 2009
50.0
