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You’re about to start betting on this year’s March Madness, but before you do so it is vital to find all the latest betting trends, tips and strategies.
Not to pat ourselves on the back….okay, we will….Gambling911.com picks have been doing quite well this season as you can see here.
Go Against The Public in Key Situations: One of the strongest factors for our picks is when oddsmakers won’t move a line or move towards a team that is getting significant public backing of 70% or more (closer to 80% or more is optimal). An example of this would be St. Joseph’s getting 75% of the public backing as a +4.5 underdog and the books either hold pat on that number or move it a half point towards +5 driving even more action towards St. Joseph’s. This typically indicates that oddsmakers have a strong opinion on UConn to cover.
Sports bettors call this “fading the public favorite” even if that favorite happens to be the underdog.
Gambling911.com tends to stay clear of big public favorites when the bookmakers are trying desperately to drive more action to the other side. Using the example above, if the line opens at -4.5 UConn and dips down to -3.5 or -3 with heavy action still coming in on St. Joseph’s, this is a sure indication that the books fear the Hawks will cover and quite possibly win outright.
Underdogs and Solid Defense: Teams that rank well defensively that are listed as underdogs stand a much better shot of covering, especially when they are listed as dogs of +4.5 or longer.
Pay Attention to Power Ratings: Betting lines, whether it be for March Madness or any other sport that features a spread, are typically generated once power ratings are formulated. Power ratings cannot be used alone. Other variables must be considered. But a good rule of thumb is to focus on a side that is 1.5 to 2 points off the determined power rating, then couple that with line movements and betting action percentages. Gambling911.com often mentions power ratings in its game previews.
Home Court Advantage: These schools will be playing close enough to their home fan base to ensure a home court advantage of between 2 and 3 added points. Louisville, Duke, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Washington, North Carolina, North Dakota State, Villanova, Oklahoma and Utah State.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
